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<DIV>Dear Doug,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thank you for presenting a reasoning voice.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It is reasonable to think that it is "possible" for anything to go
extinct. Is it thus reasonable that we should monitor
"everything?" Or maybe just keystone species and habitats (since
"everything" might be a tad too much).</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 size=2 face=Arial FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10">Bob
Patterson<BR>12601 Buckingham Drive<BR>Bowie, Maryland 20715<BR>(301) - 262-2459
pm. hours<BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Plates.shtml">Moth Photographers
Group Website</A><U><BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Files1/Live/BP/BPsite/identified.shtml">My
Personal Moths Website</A><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>In a message dated 2/13/2013 2:46:21 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
mexicodoug@aol.com writes:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: blue 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px"><FONT
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" color=#000000 size=2 face=Arial>"Clearly
the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch <BR>migrations are
possible"<BR><BR>I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the
monarch <BR>migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of
the <BR>natural world.<BR><BR>But is this intended to be a scientific
statement? If so, let's review <BR>a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on
scientific thinking:<BR><BR>"Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether
there is any <BR>independent evidence for the causality assumed in an
argument."<BR>"Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that
whatever <BR>has not been proven false must be true (and vice
versa)."<BR><BR>Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then
(Sagan, <BR>on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)<BR><BR>"Don't give
credence to an argument from adverse consequences."<BR><BR>And speaking for
myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):<BR>Don't get too attached to a
hypothesis just because it's yours.<BR>Don't let an argument go down the
slippery slope of jumping to the <BR>extreme (this is also a subset of the
excluded middle)."<BR>Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in
rhetorical <BR>trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."<BR><BR>I do
respect all the different points of view on the monarch migration <BR>miracle;
and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited <BR>discussion. We
should encourage all efforts at quantification on all <BR>sides IMO, and it is
important not to get those of us who support the <BR>fun and satisfaction of
further research not to be caricatured as <BR>alarmists, since the net effect
is a loss of credibility to <BR>Lepidopterists in general. (This also
applies,. Sagan again):<BR><BR>"Don't be selective in making observations
(enumerating favorable <BR>circumstances): count the misses as well as the
hits."<BR><BR>Best wishes<BR>Doug<BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: Roger
Kuhlman <rkuhlman@hotmail.com><BR>To: Leps List
<leps-l@mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List
<BR><leps-l@lists.yale.edu><BR>Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17
am<BR>Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<BR><BR>Clearly the
extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch <BR>migrations are
possible, so concern about migrating Monarch populations <BR>is reasonable and
something that needs to be tracked closely.<BR> <BR>Roger Kuhlman<BR>Ann
Arbor, Michigan<BR> <BR><BR>Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28
-0800<BR>From: agrkovich2003@yahoo.com<BR>To: monarch@saber.net;
TILS-leps-talk@yahoogroups.com<BR>CC: leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<BR>Subject: Re:
[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<BR><BR>"Send
money"...<BR> <BR>Alex<BR><BR><BR><BR> From: Paul Cherubini
&lt;monarch@saber.net&gt;<BR>To: TILS
&lt;TILS-leps-talk@yahoogroups.com&gt;<BR>Cc: Leps-L
&lt;leps-l@mailman.yale.edu&gt;<BR>Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013
10:31 PM<BR>Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<BR><BR>
Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip <BR>Taylor's fairly recent<BR>(Nov. 17,
2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby<BR>F. Hess Lecture at the Royal
Ontario Museum (ROM) in<BR>Toronto,
Canada:<BR>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU<BR><BR>If you want to
view the whole 57 minute presentation<BR>you can see it
here:<BR>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0<BR><BR>Paul
Cherubini<BR>El Dorado, Calif.<BR><BR><BR>
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