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What the heck is a scientific statement? The statement that I made was to point out that both eastern and western migrating Monarch populations are subject to significant possibilities of extinction for the reasons I specified. If you think that is not true, fine.<BR> <BR>Roger Kuhlman<br> <BR><div><div id="SkyDrivePlaceholder"></div>> To: leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>> From: mexicodoug@aol.com<br>> Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2013 17:14:03 -0500<br>> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<br>> <br>> Thanks Bill, and hello all,<br>> <br>> With this in mind, IMO, as a unique and majestic phenomenon it is our<br>> responsibility as students of promoting rich and sustainable<br>> biodiversity and the continued appreciation of nature to actively<br>> promote its conservation. Erring on the side of caution seems a<br>> perfectly reasonable manner to exercise this care.<br>> <br>> Relating to monitoring keystone species as indicators for the otherwise<br>> too complex world:<br>> <br>> Where I think we are getting into trouble is that in selecting and<br>> generalizing any unwitting indicator of health, whether it be<br>> ecological, cardiological or what you please, the dangers of<br>> predicating arguments, whether scientific in essence, philosophical,<br>> moral by someone's compass, or essentially evangelical, can be<br>> distractions as well as helpful if not backed up solid science. It<br>> only invites skeptics who are not intimately familiar with the<br>> situation to categorize it into the "Chicken Little - The sky is<br>> falling", "The boy who cried wolf one time too many", and "The end of<br>> the world is at hand, Armageddon hath arrived" category.<br>> <br>> I think this is the wrong approach for responsible ecologists. It<br>> resorts to using the same tactics the truly offensive<br>> anti-environmental preachers use (none of whom post to this list), by<br>> placing scientific credibility into question. In doing that, we are<br>> completely disarmed. Once credibility is questioned it is very<br>> difficult and frequently impossible to recover it. Lepidopterists<br>> might be better served in general by sticking to the science and not<br>> inventing environmental indicators of questionable general utility<br>> which only serves to perpetuate the standoff while real specific issues<br>> are faced daily in terms of habitat encroachment for thousands of<br>> species in a world that will have 8 billion humans competing for<br>> resources in another blink of the eye.<br>> <br>> Unfortunately, even statements like mine above can be twisted and<br>> selectively quoted out of context when someone who cares less about<br>> truth and only about giving winning rhetoric gets involved. To that,<br>> we are at a disadvantage, but it isn't as bleak in many areas as more<br>> of a mentality of natural conservation is evident every day. Not<br>> talking about regulations and government ... I'm referring to the<br>> general level of appreciation of having nature to retreat into from our<br>> urban sprawl that produces mountains of garbage ;-)<br>> <br>> One very positive effect of the Monarch conservation community has been<br>> a general increased awareness of many people who otherwise would never<br>> had known about it. It, and exquisite butterflies in general, do<br>> provide a very visible reminder of the fragility of the world when we<br>> can touch, tag, watch videos and increase habitat, etc. I think with<br>> the passage of time this will prove to be the legacy of the use of<br>> Monarchs as poster children for ecological inclined people. If we<br>> handle it this way, in my opinion, the potential for building consensus<br>> is much greater, as is the ability to use it as a true teaching<br>> laboratory for training future generations of scientists in scientific<br>> methodology. I have a higher tolerance for scientifically minded<br>> skeptics than most because I don't see anything wrong with questioning<br>> hypotheses. As a matter of fact, I see everything wrong with<br>> suppressing the scientifically minded opposition's ideas since the<br>> uninformed usually picks up on this before understanding what everyone<br>> is arguing about and tend to develop a soft spot for the suppressed...<br>> <br>> Kindest wishes<br>> Doug<br>> -----Original Message-----<br>> From: BPatter789 <BPatter789@aol.com><br>> To: mexicodoug <mexicodoug@aol.com>; rkuhlman <rkuhlman@hotmail.com>;<br>> leps-l <leps-l@mailman.yale.edu>; leps-l <leps-l@lists.yale.edu><br>> Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 12:08 pm<br>> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<br>> <br>> Dear Doug,<br>> <br>> Thank you for presenting a reasoning voice.<br>> <br>> It is reasonable to think that it is "possible" for anything to go<br>> extinct. Is it thus reasonable that we should monitor "everything?" <br>> Or maybe just keystone species and habitats (since "everything" might<br>> be a tad too much).<br>> <br>> Bob Patterson<br>> 12601 Buckingham Drive<br>> Bowie, Maryland 20715<br>> (301) - 262-2459 pm. hours<br>> Moth Photographers Group Website<br>> My Personal Moths Website<br>> <br>> <br>> In a message dated 2/13/2013 2:46:21 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,<br>> mexicodoug@aol.com writes:<br>> "Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch<br>> migrations are possible"<br>> <br>> I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the monarch<br>> migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of<br>> the<br>> natural world.<br>> <br>> But is this intended to be a scientific statement? If so, let's<br>> review<br>> a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on scientific thinking:<br>> <br>> "Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether there is any<br>> independent evidence for the causality assumed in an argument."<br>> "Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that<br>> whatever<br>> has not been proven false must be true (and vice versa)."<br>> <br>> Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then (Sagan,<br>> on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)<br>> <br>> "Don't give credence to an argument from adverse consequences."<br>> <br>> And speaking for myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):<br>> Don't get too attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.<br>> Don't let an argument go down the slippery slope of jumping to the<br>> extreme (this is also a subset of the excluded middle)."<br>> Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in rhetorical<br>> trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."<br>> <br>> I do respect all the different points of view on the monarch<br>> migration<br>> miracle; and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited<br>> discussion. We should encourage all efforts at quantification on all<br>> sides IMO, and it is important not to get those of us who support the<br>> fun and satisfaction of further research not to be caricatured as<br>> alarmists, since the net effect is a loss of credibility to<br>> Lepidopterists in general. (This also applies,. Sagan again):<br>> <br>> "Don't be selective in making observations (enumerating favorable<br>> circumstances): count the misses as well as the hits."<br>> <br>> Best wishes<br>> Doug<br>> -----Original Message-----<br>> From: Roger Kuhlman &lt;rkuhlman@hotmail.com&gt;<br>> To: Leps List &lt;leps-l@mailman.yale.edu&gt;; Leps List<br>> &lt;leps-l@lists.yale.edu&gt;<br>> Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17 am<br>> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<br>> <br>> Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch<br>> migrations are possible, so concern about migrating Monarch<br>> populations<br>> is reasonable and something that needs to be tracked closely.<br>> <br>> Roger Kuhlman<br>> Ann Arbor, Michigan<br>> <br>> <br>> Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28 -0800<br>> From: agrkovich2003@yahoo.com<br>> To: monarch@saber.net; TILS-leps-talk@yahoogroups.com<br>> CC: leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<br>> <br>> "Send money"...<br>> <br>> Alex<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> From: Paul Cherubini &lt;monarch@saber.net&gt;<br>> To: TILS &lt;TILS-leps-talk@yahoogroups.com&gt;<br>> Cc: Leps-L &lt;leps-l@mailman.yale.edu&gt;<br>> Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 10:31 PM<br>> Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon<br>> <br>> Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip<br>> Taylor's fairly recent<br>> (Nov. 17, 2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby<br>> F. Hess Lecture at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM) in<br>> Toronto, Canada:<br>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU<br>> <br>> If you want to view the whole 57 minute presentation<br>> you can see it here:<br>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0<br>> <br>> Paul Cherubini<br>> El Dorado, Calif.<br>> <br>> <br>> __._,_.___<br>> <br>> Reply<br>> via web post <br>> <br>> Reply to sender <br>> <br>> Reply to group Start<br>> a<br>> New Topic Messages<br>> in<br>> this topic (1) <br>> <br>> Recent Activity: Visit Your Group<br>> <br>> TILS Motto: "We can not protect that which we do<br>> not<br>> know" © 1999 Subscribe: TILS-leps-talk-subscribe@yahoogroups.com<br>> Post<br>> message: TILS-leps-talk@yahoogroups.com Unsubscribe: <br>> TILS-leps-talk-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com For more information:<br>> http://www.tils-ttr.org<br>> Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of<br>> Use •<br>> Send us Feedback<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> .<br>> <br>> __,_._,___<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> _______________________________________________Leps-l mailing<br>> listLeps-l@mailman.yale.eduhttp://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> l<br>> <br>> _______________________________________________<br>> Leps-l mailing list<br>> Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>> http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> _______________________________________________<br>> Leps-l mailing list<br>> Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>> http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l<br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> <br>> _______________________________________________<br>> Leps-l mailing list<br>> Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>> http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l<br></div> </div></body>
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