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<DIV>Dear Chuck,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Are my friends at NASA pulling the wool over my eyes?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://climate.nasa.gov/">http://climate.nasa.gov/</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I have to ask: are you observant of the changes taking place around
you?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 size=2 face=Arial FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10">Bob
Patterson<BR>12601 Buckingham Drive<BR>Bowie, Maryland 20715<BR>(301) - 262-2459
pm. hours<BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Plates.shtml">Moth Photographers
Group Website</A><U><BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Files1/Live/BP/BPsite/identified.shtml">My
Personal Moths Website</A><BR>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>In a message dated 2/16/2013 7:56:23 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
aa6g@aa6g.org writes:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: blue 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px"><FONT
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" color=#000000 size=2 face=Arial>I have
not seen any models that have under predicted warming but I guess they could
be out there. I'd need to do some research to find them.<BR><BR>I've also
heard this forecast of a 2C rise by 2030 but that seems very unlikely. We're
almost halfway there and nothing is happening. What's more likely is that the
negative phase of the PDO will finish around 2030 with some overall cooling
before the warming resumes. <BR><BR>The graph Paul linked to is the same one
I've seen in various places. There's no catastrophic warming and no obvious
link to CO2 emissions. For this and other reasons it is unlikely that CO2
drives climate. At best such a link is unproven.<BR><BR>There's also a
disconnect between satellite temperatures of the lower troposphere and the
surface temperatures, with the satellite data record (and also balloons)
showing little warming. That's examined
here:<BR><BR>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/10/on-the-differences-between-surface-and-tlt-datasets/<BR><BR>Chuck<BR><BR><BR><BR>>
My understanding is that a manuscript based on this presentation will be
published in an upcoming book on monarch conservation. I heard the original
talk and was shocked - as were many - at the prediction that it would be about
2C warmer at the elevation of the oyamel forests by 2030. This represents and
extraordinary rate of increase for such a short interval. If true, and if such
a rate change is widespread and not just applicable to higher elevations, the
world will be scrambling to adapt rather than worrying about monarchs. I'm
hoping these guys are wrong but I wouldn't bet on it since most of the recent
climate models have tended to underestimate rather than overestimate the rate
of change. And, it's a fact that temperatures are increasing at mid and high
elevations all over the tropics and subtropics, indeed over the
planet.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>>> Lots of pretty pictures but no text to
explain the presentation.<BR>>> <BR>>> I assume the slides showing
predicted temperature increase and rainfall decrease out to 2090 are based on
various climate models that appear on a graph later in the presentation. Since
no climate model has been able to predict the present from the past I see no
reason to believe any prediction made about 2090 using them.<BR>>>
<BR>>> Chuck<BR>>>
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