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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=BPatter789@aol.com
href="mailto:BPatter789@aol.com">BPatter789@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aa6g@aa6g.org
href="mailto:aa6g@aa6g.org">aa6g@aa6g.org</A> ; <A
title=Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu
href="mailto:Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu">Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 16, 2013 7:46
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Leps-l] Potential loss of
monarch overwintering habitat inMexico</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT id=role_document color=#000000 size=2 face=Arial>
<DIV>Dear Chuck,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Are my friends at NASA pulling the wool over my eyes?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://climate.nasa.gov/">http://climate.nasa.gov/</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I have to ask: are you observant of the changes taking place around
you?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 size=2 face=Arial PTSIZE="10" FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Bob
Patterson<BR>12601 Buckingham Drive<BR>Bowie, Maryland 20715<BR>(301) -
262-2459 pm. hours<BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Plates.shtml">Moth
Photographers Group Website</A><U><BR><A
href="http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Files1/Live/BP/BPsite/identified.shtml">My
Personal Moths Website</A><BR>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>In a message dated 2/16/2013 7:56:23 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, <A
href="mailto:aa6g@aa6g.org">aa6g@aa6g.org</A> writes:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: blue 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px"><FONT
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" color=#000000 size=2 face=Arial>I have
not seen any models that have under predicted warming but I guess they could
be out there. I'd need to do some research to find them.<BR><BR>I've also
heard this forecast of a 2C rise by 2030 but that seems very unlikely. We're
almost halfway there and nothing is happening. What's more likely is that
the negative phase of the PDO will finish around 2030 with some overall
cooling before the warming resumes. <BR><BR>The graph Paul linked to is the
same one I've seen in various places. There's no catastrophic warming and no
obvious link to CO2 emissions. For this and other reasons it is unlikely
that CO2 drives climate. At best such a link is unproven.<BR><BR>There's
also a disconnect between satellite temperatures of the lower troposphere
and the surface temperatures, with the satellite data record (and also
balloons) showing little warming. That's examined
here:<BR><BR>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/10/on-the-differences-between-surface-and-tlt-datasets/<BR><BR>Chuck<BR><BR><BR><BR>>
My understanding is that a manuscript based on this presentation will be
published in an upcoming book on monarch conservation. I heard the original
talk and was shocked - as were many - at the prediction that it would be
about 2C warmer at the elevation of the oyamel forests by 2030. This
represents and extraordinary rate of increase for such a short interval. If
true, and if such a rate change is widespread and not just applicable to
higher elevations, the world will be scrambling to adapt rather than
worrying about monarchs. I'm hoping these guys are wrong but I wouldn't bet
on it since most of the recent climate models have tended to underestimate
rather than overestimate the rate of change. And, it's a fact that
temperatures are increasing at mid and high elevations all over the tropics
and subtropics, indeed over the planet.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>>> Lots
of pretty pictures but no text to explain the presentation.<BR>>>
<BR>>> I assume the slides showing predicted temperature increase and
rainfall decrease out to 2090 are based on various climate models that
appear on a graph later in the presentation. Since no climate model has been
able to predict the present from the past I see no reason to believe any
prediction made about 2090 using them.<BR>>> <BR>>>
Chuck<BR>>>
<BR><BR>_______________________________________________<BR>Leps-l mailing
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