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--></style><title>Re: [Leps-l] Models Under Predicting Current
Temperatures</title></head><body>
<div>"They are still over predicting temperatures."</div>
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<div>Here is one possible reason the models are over-predicting the
temperatures based on projected CO2, water vapor and other GH gas
levels,</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Study: Volcanic eruptions offset small part of greenhouse
gas-driven global warming during the past 10 years | Summit County
Citizens Voice</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>There have been several reports on the above study this past
week.</div>
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<div>The climate wars themselves appear to be heating up.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Tired of distortions and misrepresentations some scientists are
planning to fight back against the denial myths.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div
>http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/03/03/drop-some-climate-reality-web-d<span
></span>enial-myths</div>
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<div>>In recent discussions here I made a comment that none of the
climate models have been able to predict the present from the past. I
don't archive all these messages but I think it was Chip Taylor that
mentioned that it was recently shown that the models are actually
under predicting current temperatures. I responded that I had not
heard that anywhere but would try to do some research on it.<br>
><br>
>It's come to my attention that this came out of a talk given by
Michael Mann at the American Geophysical Union conference in December
2012. Steve McIntyre has posted an analysis of how Mann was able to
make it look like the models have under predicted current
temperatures. He's calling it "Mike's AGU Trick."<br>
><br>
>http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336<br>
></div>
<div>>Turns out that if you compare GISS global land only
temperature data to a model that used land and sea data (land runs
hotter) to predict temperatures and truncate the data in 2005 instead
of using the most recent data, you can make it look like the models
have under predicted current temperatures when that is not the case.
They are still over predicting temperatures.</div>
<div>><br>
>Chuck<br>
>_______________________________________________<br>
>Leps-l mailing list<br>
>Leps-l@mailman.yale.edu<br>
>http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l</div>
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<div>Chip Taylor<br>
chip@ku.edu<br>
Monarch Watch<br>
http://www.MonarchWatch.org/<br>
Dplex-L: send message "info Dplex-L" to
Listproc@ku.edu<br>
1-888-TAGGING -or- 1-785-864-4441<br>
University of Kansas<br>
1200 Sunnyside Avenue<br>
Lawrence, KS 66045-7534<br>
Create, Conserve, and Protect Monarch Habitats</div>
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