<div><div><div dir="auto">briefly (3min) discussed on NPR today<br clear="all"><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="auto"><br>The past and future of known biodiversity: Rates, patterns, and projections of new species over time</div><div dir="auto"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(112,112,112)"><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#con1" style="text-decoration:none;line-height:1;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">XIN LI</a> <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0773-6232" style="text-decoration:none;display:inline-block;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:1;vertical-align:middle;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0003-0773-6232</a></span><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;color:rgb(112,112,112)">, </span><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(112,112,112)"><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#con2" style="text-decoration:none;line-height:1;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">DING YANG</a> <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7685-3478" style="text-decoration:none;display:inline-block;font-size:0px;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:1;vertical-align:middle;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-7685-3478</a></span><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(112,112,112)">, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#con3" style="text-decoration:none;line-height:1;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">LIANG WANG</a></span><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;color:rgb(112,112,112)">, AND </span><span style="font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(112,112,112)"><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#con4" style="text-decoration:none;line-height:1;text-transform:uppercase;white-space:nowrap;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;color:inherit" target="_blank">JOHN J. WIENS</a></span></div></div><div dir="auto"><div><div style="margin:0px 0px 0px 1.125rem;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(38,38,38)" dir="auto">SCIENCE ADVANCES </div><div style="margin:0px 0px 0px 1.125rem;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(117,117,117)">5 Dec 2025</div><div style="margin:0px 0px 0px 1.125rem;font-family:roboto,sans-serif;font-size:10px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(117,117,117)" dir="auto">Vol 11, Issue 49</div></div><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#" target="_blank">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#</a></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><snips></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><div><img src="cid:ii_19b007a22ccb36981f31" style="width:828px;max-width:100%"></div><br></div><div dir="auto"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">Among macroscopic organisms, many projections suggest that there are ~6 million insect species [review in (</span><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#core-collateral-R43" style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;background-image:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(89,89,89) 40%,rgba(255,255,255,0) 0px);background-position:center bottom;background-repeat:repeat-x;font-family:"pt serif",serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(202,32,21);color:rgb(202,32,21)" target="_blank"><i style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(202,32,21);color:rgb(202,32,21)">43</i></a><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">)], whereas our projections imply that there are only ~1.4 million (</span><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#" style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;background-image:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(89,89,89) 40%,rgba(255,255,255,0) 0px);background-position:center bottom;background-repeat:repeat-x;font-family:"pt serif",serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(202,32,21);color:rgb(202,32,21)" target="_blank">Table 1</a><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">). Our interpretation of this discrepancy is not that previous projections of high insect diversity are wrong. Instead, we suggest that it will take >400 years to describe a small fraction of these many millions of insect species at the current rate of species description. </span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)"><div style="font-family:"pt serif",serif"><div dir="auto" style="font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">Current documented extinctions are low [i.e., only ~912 documented species extinctions over the past ~500 years; (</span><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071#core-collateral-R70" style="text-decoration:none;background-image:linear-gradient(90deg,rgb(89,89,89) 40%,rgba(255,255,255,0) 0px);background-position:center bottom;background-repeat:repeat-x;font-family:"pt serif",serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(202,32,21);color:rgb(202,32,21)"><i style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(202,32,21);color:rgb(202,32,21)">70</i></a><span style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">)]</span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br></span></div><div dir="auto" style="font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(0,0,0);color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span style="font-family:"pt serif",serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">===================</span></div></div><br></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">Mike Quinn</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)">San Marcos, Texas</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;text-decoration:none;font-family:"pt serif",serif;float:none;display:inline!important;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);border-color:rgb(51,51,51);color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br></span></div></div></div></div></div>
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