Godzilla

[Mark Schilling]

From: Mark Schilling (schill at gol.com)
To: KineJapan (KineJapan at lists.acs.ohio-state.edu)
Re: Godzilla
Date: Monday, June 1, 1998

Having not seen the US Godzilla, I have no argument with Greg's observation
that the film lacks camp and charm, characters and story. 

I also admit that I was surprised by Toho's prediction that the film would
earn more than Y10 billion in rentals. As I mentioned in my earlier post,
Toho does not always overhype their forecasts (though the one I quoted for
PM should have had a period between the "4" and "0"), so I thought that
they must have their reasons, though it wasn't my brief in the marketing
piece to speculate on them. On reflection, though, here are a few reasons
why, despite poor reviews and a disappointing opening weekend in its home
market, Godzilla might still do well here:

1) All of Toho's Godzilla films released in the nineties have earned more
than Y1 billion in rentals, with two, Godilla vs. Mothra (1993) and
Godzilla vs. Destroyah recording Y2.0 billion or more. Given the strength
of the franchise, a Godzilla movie made with 10 times the budget and vastly
superior effects compared with earlier entries is almost certain to improve
on their numbers.  

2) A bad critical rap and disppointing numbers in the States does not mean
that an action film, especially, will also perform poorly here. Case in
point is Speed 2, which was trashed by US critics and ignored by US
audiences, but still managed to become the fourth highest-grossing film of
the year in Japan. 

3) Toho is not only the most successful distributor but the biggest
exhibitor in Japan -- and Godzilla is their baby. A big reason for PM's
success here last year was solid backing from Toho, which opened it wide in
their best theaters. Godzilla is opening much wider and, in many markets,
will be the only show in town. Despite the incredible legs of Titanic and
the arrival of challengers like Deep Impact, it is unquestionably the
summer movie to beat -- and will have to bomb spectacularly indeed to
lose.. 

4) A US industry analyst said that Godzilla would get zero repeat business
from anyone over fourteen -- a fatal black mark, in his opinion. In Japan,
of course, the Godzilla films have always primarily targeted a low
demographic, but the young adults have come anyway. I'd rather not comment
on audience mental age vis a vis Japan and the US, but that fact remains
that the core audience here -- teens and young adults -- will turn out in
large numbers for big effects shows, even ones aimed at 12-year-olds. 

Still, I doubt that Godzilla will be able to put up PM- and Titanic-sized
numbers. As Greg mentioned, it would have to draw the same wide demographic
and the same number of repeaters and, in my opinion, it ain't going to
happen. Even so, I can see it approaching the take of Emmerich's last film
to open in Japan, Independence Day, which lacked Godzilla's
hometown-boy-makes-good appeal, but still managed to clear Y6.65 billion in
rentals. My own best guesstimate, given the film's bad advance vibes: Y5.0
billion. 

Mark Schilling (schill at gol.com)