2007 stats

[Mark D. Roberts]

Thanks, Aaron, for these statistics.

Today's Asahi has a brief story on this, the main point being that  
tie-ins with TV production companies account for most of the  
successes, and that TV seems to increasingly determine viewer's  
choices about films:

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200802020081.html

Looking at the bigger picture, it appears on the surface that  
business is okay for the exhibitors, while the same can't really be  
said about the Japanese majors. Using the numbers from EIREN, the  
average number of admissions in the years 2000-2007 was 159.9 million/ 
year. This is better than the period 1990-97, when the average was  
131.3 million/year (I'm using eight-year intervals instead of decades  
because we only have numbers through 2007). It's also slightly better  
than the go-go 80s, when average admission was 156.2 million/year.  
Can we broadly infer that the big commercial pictures of the past  
eight years have had greater popular appeal than those in the 80s and  
90s, perhaps owing to widespread use of CGFX in blockbuster films and  
huge marketing budgets?

When we look at the market share for Japanese films over these  
periods, though, the numbers don't look as good. From 2000-2007,  
Japanese films held an average of 38.8%/year share of the market.  
Down from 1990-97, when the share was 39.8% and significantly down  
from 1980-87 it was 51.3%.

So, the exhibitors seem to be doing better while the production  
companies as a whole are gradually losing market share. Though, as  
Aaron points out, the number of screens has gone up considerably  
during this time (2364 in 1980 vs. 3221 in 2007) and that must  
represent a significant investment in construction, staff, upkeep,  
etc. Also, the average admission fee has actually come down slightly  
over the past 8 years, which goes against the broader trend since the  
beginning of the high-growth period to increase ticket prices in  
order to maintain revenues as audiences declined. Therefore, the  
important numbers would be net profits, rather than gross ticket sales.

The numbers from JVA look somewhat better, underscoring the growth  
potential in home viewing rather than public theaters. While the  
total sales and number of units sold in 2007 are not yet on the JVA  
site (or at least I didn't find them), the average monthly numbers  
for films rented in 2007 are there. To summarize, from 2004 to 2007,  
the average number of monthly rentals went up 24%, and average yearly  
revenue went up 14%. However, the JVA stats don't indicate whether  
the revenue from rentals is gross or net, because they also list the  
volume of procurements. If it is gross, then subtracting expenditures  
on new titles, the rental revenue increase from 2004 to 2007 is  
around 8%.

During this same period (2004-2007), the average cost of rentals came  
down very slightly (from 398 to 385 yen), while the cost of weekly  
rentals increased slightly. In 2004, revenue from VHS rentals still  
exceeded that from DVDs, but by 2007, 95% of rental revenue comes  
from DVDs. Video rental membership has fluctuated over this period,  
with a slight increase. Interestingly, there is an increase in the  
number of women who hold memberships, relative to men. Procurement of  
new units has gone up, from an average of 387 units/month to 545  
units/month, while the total number of titles increased from an  
average of 16043 to 18966. I.e., many of these "units" are probably  
duplicates, so that a shop can fill shelf after shelf with "Lost" and  
"24".

The JVA sales figures for 2007 are not there yet, but in 2006 the  
total sales of video software was 330.8 Billion yen for 105.1 million  
units sold. Compare that to gross box office receipts of 202.9  
Billion yen total for 164.2 million theater admissions. Average sale  
price for video software was thus 3145 yen/unit, while average ticket  
price in a theater was 1233 yen.

Finally, I found some of the JVA numbers rather surprising. In the  
breakdown of sales by channel for 2006, they suggest that of all  
video software consumed about 73% of the total units (i.e., not  
revenue) were via retail sales while only 22% were rentals. I would  
have assumed rather more rentals.

M