[leps-talk] Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in thenews yet this winter?

[Michael Gochfeld]

Whewwww.  I'm glad that the sarcasm didn't go undetected. 

Mark,  I don't think we are in disagreement about the basic principle
that we can't trust everything we read.  But I'm not sure why there is
such a problem with the Monarch story.  Unless one doubts that it got
cold, and unless one doubts that a lot of Monarchs died (both of which
seem verifiable), those could pass as facts no matter what their
source.  

The implications for future population fluctuations seem to be difficult
to predict.  From what little has been posted about winter
numbers/survival and northern arrivals/departures, there doesn't seem to
be a lot of good correlation. 

However, it's also verifiable that the fir forests are being cut.  I
haven't heard any credible basis for questioning that (although I am
behind on my emails). 

So I suppose the issue that's open to interpretation is whether thinning
of the forest or changes in microclimate at the roost sites contributed
to the high mortality.  That is something that could actually be
studied.  

If that has happened (changed microclimate leading to increased
mortality this bad bad year), and if (like most habitat changes) it is
unidirectional (continually worsening at least in the short-run), then
the Monarch story is not exagerated. 

As for seeing the same names reporting on the Monarch situation, we can
probably expect that only a handful of people have the basic information
to report on.  

Anyway, while we're talking someone somewhere is cutting down or paving
over butterfly habitat.  They are not all intrinsically unpleasant
people, but the outcome saddens me most of the time.  

Hope the butterflies come out soon. I can't afford to drive all over the
southland. 

MIKE GOCHFELD

 
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