FINAL ATTEMPT-REPOST Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in the news yet this winter?

[Nigel Venters]

Neil Jones wrote of Paul Cherubini:

> Your analysis is flawed. You are not comparing like with like. False
colour
> photographs taken from satelites can, despite the precautions taken in
this
> case, fail to distingush trees from other vegetation . Secondly the Brower
> Survey was done at a higher resolution than the satelite photographs _and_
> is _specifically_designed_ to analyse the forest cover.
> Thining of the trees will not always show on a photograph taken from high
> above the earth outside the visible spectrum because of the resolving
power
> of the lens.

I would like to dig a little deeper into this...
Actually they are Satellite scans not photographs....there is a big
difference! Does anyone have any images of the other spectrum ranges taken
when these scans were taken?...that would be useful to see. Always best to
have all the information when interpreting Satellite imagery.

Can anyone point me to the higher resolution Brower Survey images? Is this
satellite imagery or photography? Presumably if we are to compare like
with like we will have the higher resolution information available from both
years?

Then I can make my mind up on what has actually happened!
Nigel


----- Original Message -----
From: "Neil Jones" <Neil at NWJONES.DEMON.CO.UK>
To: <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>; <tils-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 10:37 PM
Subject: Re: FINAL ATTEMPT-REPOST Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs
in the news yet this winter?


> In message <3C6B4884.5BF2 at saber.net> Paul Cherubini writes:
> > But are Brower's animations accurately depicting a loss of 44% of the
nat> ive
> > forests since 1971?  No I don't think so. Here's why:
> >
> > If you take this the top pair of these close up satellite photos
> > http://www.saber.net/~monarch/changes1.JPG and match them against
> > Brower's animation you get this comparison:
> > http://www.saber.net/~monarch/close.JPG
> >
> > Now study and compare the right half of each close up satellite photo
> > and corresponding animation.
> >
> > You will see many thinned or cleared patches of forest areas (tan
colors)
> > in the 1973 satellite photo that are mistakenly represented as
> > green areas (intact forest) on the 1971 animation !
> >
> > And conversely you will see many solid red areas (intact forest)
> > on the 2000 satellite photo that are mistakenly represented as
> > grey and yellow colors (degraded or clear cut areas) in the 1999
> > animation !
>
> Your analysis is flawed. You are not comparing like with like. False
colour
> photographs taken from satelites can, despite the precautions taken in
this
> case, fail to distingush trees from other vegetation . Secondly the Brower
> Survey was done at a higher resolution than the satelite photographs _and_
> is _specifically_designed_ to analyse the forest cover.
> Thining of the trees will not always show on a photograph taken from high
> above the earth outside the visible spectrum because of the resolving
power
> of the lens.
>
> Then of course we have to apply Occam's Razor. :-)
>
> Which is the simplest scenario?
>
> 1. Mr Cherubini is correct and there is a massive conspiracy afoot.
> That in this case apparently uniquely in the poorer parts of the world
> there is no problem with deforestation.
> That the World Wide Fund for Nature, the US Geological Survey, the
respected
> journal Conservation Biology and some very highly honoured and knowledable
> academics have hatched a scheme to dupe the public for some rather
> nebulous gain
>
> Or
>
> 2. That Mr Cherubini's theories are wrong.
>
>
> --
> Neil Jones- Neil at nwjones.demon.co.uk http://www.nwjones.demon.co.uk/
> "At some point I had to stand up and be counted. Who speaks for the
> butterflies?" Andrew Lees - The quotation on his memorial at Crymlyn Bog
> National Nature Reserve
>
>
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