numbers game or counting

Anne Kilmer viceroy at GATE.NET
Thu May 2 10:37:05 EDT 2002


Martin Bailey wrote:

> From: "Kenelm Philip" <fnkwp at aurora.alaska.edu>
> Subject: RE: numbers game or counting
> 
> 
> repeated counts by the same person over the same transect produced
> meaningful data, provided the person tried to use the same procedure each
> time. I also feel that this sort of count is
>  far more useful than a one-day-per-summer count involving numerous people
> and a number of sites.
> 
> 100% right.  Or is that degrees of significance approaching 1?   MARTIN
> BAILEY
> 
> well, it all depends on what you're trying to do. 

Ken is a scientist. He wants to know what's up with the butterflies.
If you were, say, a demagogue, you would want to get as many people as 
possible involved, regardless of their credulous simplicity, and you 
would try to make them happy with their results. You wouldn't worry 
about accuracy.
If you were a teacher, you would try to get as many different habitats 
into your circle as possible ... true also if you were going for number 
of species rather than individual buttcounts. And you would focus on 
training your counters, building group loyalty and camaraderie with the 
result that your count would result in an increased number of species 
and individuals each year, just because your spotters were more 
sophisticated.
Conversely, this would produce fewer rareties that couldn't be 
confirmed. Gosh, I saw a lot of rare birds the first year I was a birder.

If you were a cheater, you would include lots of home gardeners who 
practiced rear and release, and you would produce wonderful numbers of 
great butterflies, let out of the screened porch for the great day. (My 
own dear NABA Atala Chapter, let me hasten to add, has never done this 
... and scorns such tactics.)

Many areas in a circle are never looked at; we concentrate on the good 
parts, of course, as we pick out the raisins in the rice pudding before 
we're "full". Oh, I so admire the human race, I do.

I like the transect technique myself, as it is, for gawdsake, 
reproduceable, which the circle is not.

Also, as in the Audubon Christmas Count, home gardeners should be encouraged to keep lists and post successes.

Somebody should go check, if their prizes are improbable, bless their 
little hearts.

So, why doesn't the International Lep Survey start the transect system, 
beginning with, say, the solstices and equinoxes, and adding dates 
during the more friendly parts of the year. Bear in mind that folks in 
Australia have feelings, and butterflies, too.

Since we've just had an equinox (and a wowser it was) let's pick another 
date, much closer to us; first of June, say? Or are you willing to wait 
till the solstice, which is close enough to the NABA's Fourth of July to 
fall into their count time ... I think.

Just a suggestion.
Anne Kilmer
Viceroy
Butterfly Coalition





 
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