Fw: numbers game or counting

[Martin Bailey]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Martin Bailey" <cmbb at sk.sympatico.ca>
To: "Anne Kilmer" <viceroy at gate.net>
Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 12:03 PM
Subject: Re: numbers game or counting


> Well, Anne,
>
> I came back from my morning walk (listening with particular attention for
> Merlin calls) thinking that I have been projecting either a hypocritical
> position or one that is too statistically narrow-minded.  Except for your
> last comments on solstices which I assume are ironic, I agree with
> everything that you say.  We all have our place at the table.  And it is
not
> a question of the more the merrier.
>
> For example, Stuart Houston, M.D., who has banded more Swainson's Hawks
and
> Great Horned Owls than anyone else in the whole wide world would go around
> talking to farmers soliciting their support in locating nests in their
> trees.  These are the guys with their fingers on the trigger.  They could
> have chosen to shoot these birds out of their trees.  No one would be the
> wiser. (Average farm size: one and an half miles square.)  They didn't.
> They got to love the "vermin."
>
> This Saturday I will be going around with the son of one of these famers
> censusing Merlin nests.  He started off by showing "Uncle Stu" where the
> nests were on his family land.  At age fourteen Stuart  got him climbing
and
> banding.  Now his idea of loving nature is different than yours: hunts
ducks
> and mule deer.  And when called upon, he traps out beaver.
>
> He has his finger on the trigger.  But he is no different than you.  You
> chose either to soak your backyard in weed spray or not.  He choses to
leave
> what is on his land be.
>
> Now I do not think following bird count methodology is the way to go for
> butterflies.  I base this upon my own experiences and readings. (See:
> Birding, February 1997,"A Half Century of Christmas Bird Counts in
> Saskatchewan by Martin Bailey.)
>
> Michael Gochfeld's posting dated today, 8:51 a.m. titled "Census
techniques
> and Pollard & Yates" on Leplist presents viable alternatives to copying
> birding traditions.  As well, it is my understanding that all summer long
in
> Britian there are willing volunteers that do Pollard walks.  Butterfly
data
> that is collected and entered via the internet (if you so desire).
>
> It is possible, even if you are not British, to get ordinary folks to go
out
> and gather data that follows the rigours of scientific analyses.  Well...
I
> would like to think that it is possible.
>
> Martin Bailey,
>
> greetings from:  Weyburn, SK., Canada.
>                          49.39N  103.51W
>
>
>  "Kenelm Philip" <fnkwp at aurora.alaska.edu>
> > > Subject: RE: numbers game or counting
>
> > > repeated counts by the same person over the same transect produced
> > > meaningful data, provided the person tried to use the same procedure
> each
> > > time. I also feel that this sort of count is
> > >  far more useful than a one-day-per-summer count involving numerous
> people
> > > and a number of sites.
> > >
> > > 100% right.  Or is that degrees of significance approaching 1?
MARTIN
> > > BAILEY
> > >
> > > well, it all depends on what you're trying to do.
> >
> > Ken is a scientist. He wants to know what's up with the butterflies.
> > If you were, say, a demagogue, you would want to get as many people as
> > possible involved, regardless of their credulous simplicity, and you
> > would try to make them happy with their results. You wouldn't worry
> > about accuracy.
> > If you were a teacher, you would try to get as many different habitats
> > into your circle as possible ... true also if you were going for number
> > of species rather than individual buttcounts. And you would focus on
> > training your counters, building group loyalty and camaraderie with the
> > result that your count would result in an increased number of species
> > and individuals each year, just because your spotters were more
> > sophisticated.
> > Conversely, this would produce fewer rareties that couldn't be
> > confirmed. Gosh, I saw a lot of rare birds the first year I was a
birder.
> >
> > If you were a cheater, you would include lots of home gardeners who
> > practiced rear and release, and you would produce wonderful numbers of
> > great butterflies, let out of the screened porch for the great day. (My
> > own dear NABA Atala Chapter, let me hasten to add, has never done this
> > ... and scorns such tactics.)
> >
> > Many areas in a circle are never looked at; we concentrate on the good
> > parts, of course, as we pick out the raisins in the rice pudding before
> > we're "full". Oh, I so admire the human race, I do.
> >
> > I like the transect technique myself, as it is, for gawdsake,
> > reproduceable, which the circle is not.
> >
> > Also, as in the Audubon Christmas Count, home gardeners should be
> encouraged to keep lists and post successes.
> >
> > Somebody should go check, if their prizes are improbable, bless their
> > little hearts.
> >
> > So, why doesn't the International Lep Survey start the transect system,
> > beginning with, say, the solstices and equinoxes, and adding dates
> > during the more friendly parts of the year. Bear in mind that folks in
> > Australia have feelings, and butterflies, too.
> >
> > Since we've just had an equinox (and a wowser it was) let's pick another
> > date, much closer to us; first of June, say? Or are you willing to wait
> > till the solstice, which is close enough to the NABA's Fourth of July to
> > fall into their count time ... I think.
> >
> > Just a suggestion.
> > Anne Kilmer
> > Viceroy
> > Butterfly Coalition
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>


 
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