Record Low Monarch population expected in Mexico this winter.

[Grkovich, Alex]

Paul,

In this particular point I agree with you. Virtually ALL migratory
(actually, refer "them" also to the more proper term "dispersal") butterfly
populations are way off all over the northeast and Midwest this summer, not
just Monarchs. Maybe Painted ladies, American Painted Ladies, Red Admirals,
Question Marks, Buckeyes, etc. etc. might ALL have been killed by the frost
and "defoliating and deforesting" in Mexico.

Last year (2001) was a banner year for all of these, and this year the
opposite. This has happened before, too. A friend of mine from Vermont
posted a couple of days ago on VT-LEPS that Monarchs were almost absent from
VT during the period of 1950 to 1953, and I remember hardly seeing a Painted
Lady in southwestern Ontario as a youth during the period of about 1960 to
1965. So this isn't the first time, and I'm with Paul on this one entirely.

Now, lest anyone try to pin on me that I am not a "conservationist" and do
not and would not support "conservationist issues", let me say that as a
"vocational naturalist", I am more than concerned about preservation of the
natural world, and also I can say that I love it very much. I am certainly a
"conservationist" and also supporter of such conservation efforts as the
Miami Blue Butterfly Project, and many other worthy causes. However, let me
state this which I know is truth, and which I can state from my own life's
experience, that Americans and Canadians (and Western Europeans, as well)
are inherently conservation minded, and do not need to have any type of
militant conservationism or any other "movement" or "ideology", too often
with certain unsavory and dangerous purposes (anti-collecting, anti-hunting,
anti-fishing, anti-this or that) forced down their throats. This inherent
trait of ours toward conservationism is the result of the fact that we,
here, are primarily land and property owners, and are citizens. We have
grown up and have been taught to take care of our properties and our lands,
our cities, and our nations. This has become a part of our way of life. As I
said above, we are CITIZENS of our countries, and not merely slaves and/or
serfs to a dictatorship or communist government. We are used to cleaning up
and taking care of what we have and what belongs to us. A close relative of
ours, an elderly gentleman of almost 80 years from Belgrade, Yugoslavia, who
has suffered immensely under communism and war his entire life (and has also
traveled enough to know otherwise), while visiting us last summer, commented
to his wife while I was doing something around the house (I don't remember
what exactly, painting something or repairing something etc.) that, "You
see, over here, they take care of what they have, they are responsible." And
it's not like I was rebuilding half of the house. I many times with my own
(4) eyes people observed throwing large bags of garbage (and seeming to
actually enjoy the experience) out of their 15th floor kitchen windows in
Belgrade, onto the street below, with the mounds of garbage and refuse only
gathering in size as no one cared to pick it up; certainly the government
didn't care about it. Where is the concern for the environment there?   

In North America, we are doing fine with conservation and the "environment",
thank you. Anybody been to Central America, eastern Europe, or even worse,
the Middle East, lately? Don't go to Middle Eastern beaches, for example,
without a "space suit". Tons upon tons of garbage everywhere, not to mention
oil. And I saw sewage flowing on the streets (clay streets) of some third
world village outside of Kuwait City, no less, with children playing in it.
The pollution in East European cities (such as poor Belgrade) is so bad that
people literally almost can't breathe. Americans and Canadians need to "step
out" into other parts of the world, and then reconsider our "problem". And
we here mostly need to keep our economies and our social environments
healthy, so that our great infrastructures can be maintained and upgraded.
Like it or not, unless we intend to return to living in caves and heating
and cooking with fire, we shall continue to need industry, and
infrastructure. Only this industry and infrastructure must continue to be
maintained and upgraded, and modernized, in order that we continue to
maintain and enjoy our clean and healthy environments and countries.

What is the saying? "We have seen the enemy, and the enemy is us." (?) Our
ignorance and the resulting potential to be manipulated and deceived, for
example, into losing the respect of the other person and his dignity (while
ruining both himself and the other person as a result) is our only real
enemy and threat. I have no doubt (actually, I know, from speaking to people
over there) that all of the peoples of, for example, Yugoslavia, now wish
they had respected each others' dignities, and had not attempted to force
their own beliefs, ideologies, and prejudices down the throats of their
neighbors as  they did, because now it's too late for them. The entire
countryside, along with whatever infrastructure, industry, and conservation
they may have had, ruined, everything is gone. 

Respect each other's dignity. That's the key.

Alex

> -----Original Message-----
> From:	Paul Cherubini [SMTP:monarch at saber.net]
> Sent:	Friday, September 13, 2002 3:51 AM
> To:	leps-l at lists.yale.edu
> Subject:	Record Low Monarch population expected in Mexico this
> winter.
> 
> Monarch populations in the upper midwestern USA have been
> much lower than normal late this summer.  Experienced observers 
> have found only dozens of monarchs at traditional overnight clustering
> sites that normally contain many hundreds or thousands of 
> monarchs.  Thus it appears likely the overwintering
> population of monarchs in Mexico this winter will be at
> record low levels.
> 
> The Mid-summer population of monarch adults in the upper
> midwest was only slightly to moderately lower than last
> summer. The cause of the late adult population crash 
> summer appears to be a high population of monarch egg and first 
> instar larval predators such as ladybugs, ants, spiders, lacewings, 
> etc.  Several observers including myself found very few large 
> monarch caterpillars in July & August in Minnesota because the 
> predation of monarch eggs and baby caterpillars was so high.  
> 
> The weak monarch migration this fall and record low overwintering
> population in Mexico will undoubtedly lead to many frightening and 
> worrisome "this could be the end" type monarch horror story articles
> in the popular press. I predict some of the scientists authoring or quoted
> in 
> the articles will not talk much about the natural biotic or abiotic
> factors
> that could have led to the monarch population crash, but instead will try
> to 
> link the crash to human disturbances of the environment such
> as logging, urban sprawl, pesticide use, global warming, genetically
> modified crops, etc.  Rant:  Nowadays it is fashionable and financially
> rewarding to link the decline of butterflies to human disturbances as this
> leads 
> to a greater level of public fear and worry and hence larger grants and 
> donations for the conservation organizations.  
> 
> Paul Cherubini
> Placerville, Calif.
> 
>  
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