Record Low Monarch population expected in Mexico this winter.

Patrick Foley patfoley at csus.edu
Fri Sep 13 14:30:31 EDT 2002


Chip,

Is your group keeping enough time series data on Monarchs and natural enemies to
see if predator-prey oscillations are going on over time? Or do you have any
relevant information? If monarchs are the main hosts of some Tachinids or some
other insect, then some coupling may be ccurring. If weather fluctuations are
driving most of the Monarch population fluctuations, then such a coupling may be
one way. Monarch pops may drive tachinid posp but not vice versa. I am assuming
that the ultimate Monarch density regulation comes from either Winter roosting
habitat or from Milkweed abundance. DOes anybody have a handle on that?

Patrick
patfoley at csus.edu

Chip Taylor wrote:

> Alex: Think Texas - and elsewhere in the SW - the origin of most of
> these migratory species. They crash with every spg drought in these
> areas followed by low numbers in the summer throughout the rest of
> the US and Canada. The fire ants are also a factor. The boom in 2001
> was the consequence of a long drought that depressed the FAs and
> other predators and parasites followed by fall and winter rains and a
> cool spg that provided ideal breeding conditions, and ecological
> release from predators and parasites, for many species that simply
> radiated north in April, May and June of 2001. The numbers of
> migrants seen in eastern KS last yr was truly extraordinary. This yr
> - predictably -as early as March - there were relatively few.
>
> >
> >
> >In this particular point I agree with you. Virtually ALL migratory
> >(actually, refer "them" also to the more proper term "dispersal") butterfly
> >populations are way off all over the northeast and Midwest this summer, not
> >just Monarchs. Maybe Painted ladies, American Painted Ladies, Red Admirals,
> >Question Marks, Buckeyes, etc. etc. might ALL have been killed by the frost
> >and "defoliating and deforesting" in Mexico.
> >
> >Last year (2001) was a banner year for all of these, and this year the
> >opposite. This has happened before, too. A friend of mine from Vermont
> >posted a couple of days ago on VT-LEPS that Monarchs were almost absent from
> >VT during the period of 1950 to 1953, and I remember hardly seeing a Painted
> >Lady in southwestern Ontario as a youth during the period of about 1960 to
> >1965. So this isn't the first time, and I'm with Paul on this one entirely.
> --
>
> Monarch Watch
> e: monarch at ku.edu
> w: http://www.MonarchWatch.org/
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> p: 1 (888) TAGGING (toll-free!) -or- 1 (785) 864 4441
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> Avenue, Lawrence, KS 66045-7534
>
>
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