It's fall and time for a new round of Monarch Extinction press releases.

[Stanley A. Gorodenski]

Paul, et al,
I read all the references Paul gave (one could not be found) and I did 
not get the impression from any of these articles that Oberhauser and 
fellow researchers were crying wolf, applying bad science, and, 
especially, predicting the the extinction of the population of Monarchs 
that migrate to Mexico, let alone the entire species. These are excerpts 
from the news articles Paul provided:

"The scientists point out that the monarch may be expected to survival 
climate change better than some animals that cannot migrate. However, 
their highly specific requirements for surviving the winter months make 
them especially vulnerable to any changes."
and
"Three things could happen," said Oberhauser, whose study was published 
online Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 
"They could go extinct. They could adapt. Or they could go somewhere else."
and
"Oberhauser said she could not say what would happen to the butterflies 
if wet winters in the micro-climate became the norm."
and
"They could become a year-round breeding species like they are in Hawaii,"

None of these look like "dire predictions" as Paul describes them, and, 
apparently, as some on this list look upon these news articles. Who is 
being objective and who is being biased? Who is crying wolf and who is 
not? It does not appear to me that it is Oberhauser and fellow 
researchers are guilty of the latter and I am glad someone is doing 
"actual" research in this area.
Stan
p.s. As I have already stated, I have no position on the danger to the 
Monarch.


Paul Cherubini wrote:

>In past years, usually in the fall or winter, Dr's Lincoln Brower, Karen                                        
>Oberhauser and/or Chip Taylor have made dire predictions, about the                               
>potential impacts of logging in Mexico, Bt corn, tourist trampling, butterfly                                   
>releases, mosquito spraying etc, on migratory monarchs, but the migrants                                   
>continue be as abundant as ever.  This fall, Dr. Oberhauser has been                                                  
>talking to the press about an imminent new extinction threat:
>                                                                                                                                                                                                    
>USA TODAY:
>http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2003-11-11-monarch-climate_x.htm
>                                                                                                                                                                                              
>CLIMATE changes may drown out monarch butterflies CBC News, Canada
>MINNEAPOLIS - A wetter climate is expected in Mexico in the next 50 years,
>which could do in monarch butterflies. Millions of colourful ...
><http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/11/10/monarchs031110>
>                                                                                                                                                              
>BBC News, UK
>Monarch butterflies may lose their winter habitat within 50 years
>because of climate change, say researchers. Monarchs migrate thousands ...
>Monarch Butterfly May Face Climate Threat - Newsday Climate
>change in winter home may endanger Monarch butterfly, ...
><http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3257917.stm>
>
>MONARCH Butterfly May Face Climate Threat Fredericksburg.com, VA
>Monarch butterflies, which journey hundreds of miles to spend the winter
>in a mountain forest in Mexico, may be endangered within 50 years
>because a changing ...
><http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/apmethods/apstory?urlfeed=D7UO1B401.xml>
>
>CLIMATE threatens butterfly's 2,000-mile migration Independent, UK
>  ... Oberhauser added: "The relationship between winter mortality and
> weather conditions suggests climate-change may have important impacts on
> monarch butterflies.". ...
><http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_medical/story.jsp?story=462600>
>
>MONARCH butterflies face new threat from global climate change
>Minneapolis Star Tribune (subscription), MN For eons monarch butterflies
>from the northern United States have migrated by the millions to hang from
>trees in great orange clouds high in the mountains of ...
><http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4204668.html>
>
>Paul Cherubini
>
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------ 
>
>   For subscription and related information about LEPS-L visit:
>
>   http://www.peabody.yale.edu/other/lepsl 
> 
>
>
>
>  
>


 
 ------------------------------------------------------------ 

   For subscription and related information about LEPS-L visit:

   http://www.peabody.yale.edu/other/lepsl