It's fall and time for a new round of Monarch:PNAS Abstract

Chip Taylor chip at
Thu Nov 13 04:45:31 EST 2003

If anyone would like to receive a PDF of the Oberhauser/Peterson 
paper, please email me privately. The niche modeling methods used in 
this paper are proving to be extremely powerful and have general 
applicability. The interpretations in the paper are based on Hadley 
Climate Center models 
These models, like all such models, are based on a combination of 
known patterns of change and a variety of assumptions. The models 
appear to be effective in predicting near term changes.

Although the paper deals specifically with monarchs, the general 
conclusions are applicable to 10's of thousands of species. The paper 
references many articles, a number of them on leps, documenting 
changes in distribution and abundance of species that appear to be 
the result of changes in climate.

While it might be difficult to accept the specific conclusions in 
this paper regarding monarchs, and I'm certainly reluctant to do so 
without more corroboration, the predictive power of the methods used 
in this paper can't be ignored.
Monarch Watch
e:  monarch at
Dplex-L:  send message "info Dplex-L" to Listproc at
p: 1 (888) TAGGING (toll-free!) -or- 1 (785) 864 4441
f: 1  (785) 864 5321
usps:  University of Kansas, Entomology Program, 1200 Sunnyside
Avenue, Lawrence, KS 66045-7534


   For subscription and related information about LEPS-L visit: 

More information about the Leps-l mailing list