It's fall and time for a new round of Monarch:PNAS Abstract

[Chip Taylor]

If anyone would like to receive a PDF of the Oberhauser/Peterson 
paper, please email me privately. The niche modeling methods used in 
this paper are proving to be extremely powerful and have general 
applicability. The interpretations in the paper are based on Hadley 
Climate Center models 
(http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeltypes.html). 
These models, like all such models, are based on a combination of 
known patterns of change and a variety of assumptions. The models 
appear to be effective in predicting near term changes.

Although the paper deals specifically with monarchs, the general 
conclusions are applicable to 10's of thousands of species. The paper 
references many articles, a number of them on leps, documenting 
changes in distribution and abundance of species that appear to be 
the result of changes in climate.

While it might be difficult to accept the specific conclusions in 
this paper regarding monarchs, and I'm certainly reluctant to do so 
without more corroboration, the predictive power of the methods used 
in this paper can't be ignored.
-- 
Monarch Watch
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