Monarch Extinction (substantial evidence?)

Paul Cherubini monarch at saber.net
Sat Nov 15 17:05:20 EST 2003


MexicoDoug at aol.com wrote:

> (Regarding the extinction statements and quotations from
> Paul, they really seem over dramatized BS by someone who
> is just looking to pick a fight...create anarchy, mass suspicion,
> whatever, I guess he likes muckraking).

Doug, these extinction statements and quotations have even
appeared in peer reviewed journals.  Here is what Lincoln
Brower and Steve Malcolm wrote in 1991 in the American
Zoologist 31: page 270:

"Because the monarchs' specialized overwintering sites are limited
to such an extraordinarily small area in Mexico, its eastern North
American migratory phenomenon is now threatened with extinction
and will probably be destroyed within 10 to 20 years."
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/extinction2.jpg

And in 1990, Dr. Brower wrote the following to the City Planners of
Pacific Grove, California :

"Because the monarch's specialized overwintering sites are limited
to to such an extraordinarily small area in Mexico which is not being
well protected, its eastern North American migratory phenomenon
will probably be largely if not totally destroyed within 10 to 20 years.
Thus, California may well become the sole North American steward of
the monarch migration."

It has now been 13 years since Dr. Brower made those extinction
predictions, yet neither the annual Cape May migration census results:
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/extinction.jpg nor the  Mexican
overwintering population census results
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/mexicopop.jpg suggests the migratory
phenomenon is in decline.

Therefore I think it is important for the public to know that some of
the same scientists who in 1990 wrongly predicted the monarch migration
would probably be extinct by 2000 or 2010 are the same ones who are
now predicting the migration could be extinct by 2010 or 2020.

And I think it's important for the public to know that when they hear
a monarch scientist proclaiming: "in the last 30 years, nearly half the
prime forest in the [Mexican overwintering] area has been degraded
or destroyed." http://www.sbcnews.sbc.edu/0202/0202nytbrower.html
that the forests really look like this:

The El Rosario reserve where 35% of all the monarchs stay:

http://www.saber.net/~monarch/19902002.jpg
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/elrosarneil.jpg

The Chincua Reserve where 25% of all the monarchs stay:

Distant view: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chin1.jpg
Closer view: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chin2.jpg
Close up view: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chin3.jpg

Paul Cherubini

 
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