Monarch Extinction (substantial evidence?)

[Paul Cherubini]

Stan wrote:

> Patrick can point out that the prophesy [of the monarch migration
> becoming extinct between the years 1990 and 2000]  probably wasn't 
> fulfilled precisely because of the efforts of Taylor, Brower, Oberhauser
> etc.

Stan, if that was true, then we need to ask ourselves what specific actions
did Taylor, Oberhauser and Brower take during the 1990's that prevented
loggers from chopping down these two whole mountain ranges of forest 
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/19902002.jpg
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chin2.jpg
where 60% of all the monarchs overwinter, during that 10 year period?

Are these scientists even claiming they did anything significant to stop
renegage loggers? No!  To the contrary, they are claiming deforestation 
during the 1990's occurred at an even more accelerated pace as compared
to the 70's and 80's and was now entering a crisis stage that could doom
the monarch migration phenomenon as early as the year 2010.  Specifically, 
http://www.savethepinebush.org/News/OctNov00/Monarch.html in 
Sept. 2000 Brower made the following comments about the amount of
deforestation occuring:  "From what I've seen there year after year, I predicted 
it would be bad and getting worse. But I didn't predict it would be this bad. 
The maps just floored me." And Karen Oberhauser commented: ""It's the first
study and a really important  study. We didn't expect the change [decline in 
forest cover] to be this great." 

The website goes on to say: "At this rate of deterioration, the researchers
estimated, nearly all original forest now used for Monarch roosting in Mexico 
would be critically degraded by the year 2050. More frightening, however, 
was the likelihood, they said, that forest thinning, combined with complex niche
requirements of the overwintering Monarchs, would make successful mass
roosting by the species in Mexico impossible much sooner, perhaps within a 
decade."

So you see Stan, Brower et al didn't do anything to save the Chincua and
El Rosario forests from being logged into oblivion in the 1990's.  And despite 
their failed prediction of the collapse of the monarch migration by the year 2000, 
they are making the same predictions of doom all over again; i.e.telling reporters 
they think it's possible the migration phenomenon could collapse by 2010 or 
2020.

At this point , Stan, you might be wondering who or what saved the Chincua 
and El Rosario forests from being logged into oblivion during the 1990's?  Well 
the fact is none of the mountains in this area of Mexico, at the altitude where the 
monarchs overwinter, are being logged into oblivion.  And this includes mountains 
with no monarch colonies and mountains with no "protected reserve" status.  
Why not? You'd have to ask the Mexican foresters and land owners. Wholesale 
logging of the forests in the 10,000 - 11,000 foot elevation range (the altitude 
where the monarchs overwinter) is simply not the custom in Mexico. And that's 
why no monarch scientist has ever shown the public a photo of an 11,000 foot 
or higher mountain in central Mexico with it's forest completely clear cut from 
top to bottom.  

Paul Cherubini

 
 ------------------------------------------------------------ 

   For subscription and related information about LEPS-L visit:

   http://www.peabody.yale.edu/other/lepsl