[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Fri Feb 15 01:00:32 EST 2013

So Roger, is this how you operate? Put words in people's mouth? Please stick only to what I wrote and don't invent things I never said or thought. If you actually read what I wrote you'd see that I said that there are problems that need to be addressed. But there are a lot of people out there peddling alarmism too.

When someone stands up year after year claiming the Monarch migration is threatened and it continues with no real change and no real science to support the claim then that's alarmism. Claims that involve weasel words like could, might, possible, etc. have no place in science. Just because one can imagine something happening doesn't mean it is. If the Monarch migration is threatened then show me the science that says it is. Don't make up scary scenarios to try to squeeze me for money.

Chuck

> So Chuck are you saying the loss of biodiversity and native ecosystems worldwide amounts to nothing more than just a bunch of folks crying wolf? There is no real problem ecologically out there just a lot of con artists seeking to fatten their bank accounts.
>  
> Roger Kuhlman
>  
> > From: aa6g at aa6g.org
> > Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2013 09:00:11 -0800
> > To: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> > Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> > 
> > I'm a layman in this field but have been lurking on this list for closing in on 20 years. From my point of view the recurring alarmism over the possible loss of the Monarch migration has grown old and worn out. It really does seem like a pitch for funding. There seems to be a lot of this going on in the modern environmental movement.
> > 
> > Does anyone seriously believe that if a few stands of trees burnt down in Mexico that the next wave of Monarchs would reach their destination, find no trees, and fly around until they fell out of the sky dead on the ground? Certainly they would find other trees.
> > 
> > I remember Paul has documented that a small number of west coast Monarchs overwinter in eucalyptus trees at Sky West golf coarse in Hayward. I lived next to that land as a kid in San Lorenzo when it was an open field. I caught butterflies there and collected Monarch caterpillars on narrow leaf milkweed. It didn't seem like Monarchs had too much trouble adopting new trees to overwinter on when that land became a golf coarse.
> > 
> > Even in my extremely limited experience in raising a few local species of moths and butterflies I discovered that they have survival strategies that I have not seen in any books. For example, the supposedly univoltine species H. euryalus wasn't univoltine in 2012.
> > 
> > Certainly Monarchs have had to deal with environmental disruptions over the millennia. It seems to me that the Monarch migration, instead of being a fragile phenomenon, must be a robust phenomenon or else it wouldn't have survived for so long.
> > 
> > I recognize that there are environmental problems that need to be addressed but I don't see why some scientists have to resort to using scare tactics to raise money. I guess they do it because it works on the uneducated. But even the uneducated catch on after a few failed predictions so the alarmists have to escalate the level of scariness and forecast of doom to keep the money flowing. 
> > 
> > Chuck - Mountain Ranch, CA
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > > "Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
> > > migrations are possible"
> > > 
> > > I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the monarch 
> > > migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of the 
> > > natural world.
> > > 
> > > But is this intended to be a scientific statement? If so, let's review 
> > > a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on scientific thinking:
> > > 
> > > "Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether there is any 
> > > independent evidence for the causality assumed in an argument."
> > > "Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that whatever 
> > > has not been proven false must be true (and vice versa)."
> > > 
> > > Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then (Sagan, 
> > > on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)
> > > 
> > > "Don't give credence to an argument from adverse consequences."
> > > 
> > > And speaking for myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
> > > Don't get too attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
> > > Don't let an argument go down the slippery slope of jumping to the 
> > > extreme (this is also a subset of the excluded middle)."
> > > Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in rhetorical 
> > > trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."
> > > 
> > > I do respect all the different points of view on the monarch migration 
> > > miracle; and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited 
> > > discussion. We should encourage all efforts at quantification on all 
> > > sides IMO, and it is important not to get those of us who support the 
> > > fun and satisfaction of further research not to be caricatured as 
> > > alarmists, since the net effect is a loss of credibility to 
> > > Lepidopterists in general. (This also applies,. Sagan again):
> > > 
> > > "Don't be selective in making observations (enumerating favorable 
> > > circumstances): count the misses as well as the hits."
> > > 
> > > Best wishes
> > > Doug
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Roger Kuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>
> > > To: Leps List <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List 
> > > <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
> > > Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17 am
> > > Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> > > 
> > > Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
> > > migrations are possible, so concern about migrating Monarch populations 
> > > is reasonable and something that needs to be tracked closely.
> > > 
> > > Roger Kuhlman
> > > Ann Arbor, Michigan
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28 -0800
> > > From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
> > > To: monarch at saber.net; TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
> > > CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> > > Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> > > 
> > > "Send money"...
> > > 
> > > Alex
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > From: Paul Cherubini &lt;monarch at saber.net&gt;
> > > To: TILS &lt;TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com&gt;
> > > Cc: Leps-L &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;
> > > Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 10:31 PM
> > > Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> > > 
> > > Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip 
> > > Taylor's fairly recent
> > > (Nov. 17, 2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
> > > F. Hess Lecture at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM) in
> > > Toronto, Canada:
> > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU
> > > 
> > > If you want to view the whole 57 minute presentation
> > > you can see it here:
> > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0
> > > 
> > > Paul Cherubini
> > > El Dorado, Calif.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > __._,_.___
> > > Reply 
> > > via web post 
> > > Reply to sender 
> > > Reply to group Start a 
> > > New Topic Messages in 
> > > this topic (1) 
> > > Recent Activity: Visit Your Group
> > > 
> > > TILS Motto: "We can not protect that which we do not 
> > > know" © 1999 Subscribe: TILS-leps-talk-subscribe at yahoogroups.com Post 
> > > message: TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com Unsubscribe: 
> > > TILS-leps-talk-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com For more information: 
> > > http://www.tils-ttr.org
> > > Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use • 
> > > Send us Feedback
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > .
> > > 
> > > __,_._,___
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > _______________________________________________Leps-l mailing 
> > > listLeps-l at mailman.yale.eduhttp://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-
> > > l
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Leps-l mailing list
> > > Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> > > http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Leps-l mailing list
> > > Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> > > http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l
> > 
> > _______________________________________________
> > Leps-l mailing list
> > Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> > http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20130214/c4beb6ff/attachment-0001.html 