[Leps-l] Models Under Predicting Current Temperatures

[Chip Taylor]

Oops. Here is a link to the original article in Science News.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2013/03/01/Study-Volcanoes-have-climate-effect/UPI-21511362179590/
--

"They are still over predicting temperatures."

Here is one possible reason the models are over-predicting the 
temperatures based on projected CO2, water vapor and other GH gas 
levels,

Study:

Volcanic eruptions offset small part of greenhouse gas-driven global 
warming during the past 10 years | Summit County Citizens Voice

There have been several reports on the above study this past week.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The climate wars themselves appear to be heating up.

Tired of distortions and misrepresentations some scientists are 
planning to fight back against the denial myths.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/03/03/drop-some-climate-reality-web-denial-myths

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>In recent discussions here I made a comment that none of the climate 
>models have been able to predict the present from the past. I don't 
>archive all these messages but I think it was Chip Taylor that 
>mentioned that it was recently shown that the models are actually 
>under predicting current temperatures. I responded that I had not 
>heard that anywhere but would try to do some research on it.
>
>It's come to my attention that this came out of a talk given by 
>Michael Mann at the American Geophysical Union conference in 
>December 2012. Steve McIntyre has posted an analysis of how Mann was 
>able to make it look like the models have under predicted current 
>temperatures. He's calling it "Mike's AGU Trick."
>
>http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336
>
>Turns out that if you compare GISS global land only temperature data 
>to a model that used land and sea data (land runs hotter) to predict 
>temperatures and truncate the data in 2005 instead of using the most 
>recent data, you can make it look like the models have under 
>predicted current temperatures when that is not the case. They are 
>still over predicting temperatures.
>
>Chuck
>_______________________________________________
>Leps-l mailing list
>Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
>http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

-- 
Chip Taylor
chip at ku.edu
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-- 
Chip Taylor
chip at ku.edu
Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org/
Dplex-L:  send message "info Dplex-L" to Listproc at ku.edu
1-888-TAGGING -or- 1-785-864-4441
University of Kansas
1200 Sunnyside Avenue
Lawrence, KS 66045-7534
Create, Conserve, and Protect Monarch Habitats