From neil at aurinia.co.uk  Fri Apr  1 07:20:17 2022
From: neil at aurinia.co.uk (Neil Jones)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 12:20:17 +0100
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
Message-ID: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>

The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch 
overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable revelation.

The results of a top secret research project have finally been revealed 
to the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement across the 
scientific community. A research group of paleontologists has been 
working in the area of the colonies and they have made some remarkable 
finds.

Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been 
unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has 
shown they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named 
Gigantopithecus epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 
foot tall orangutan which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel 
forests.

Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done 
with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.

 ?Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It 
seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 
years ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers."

Neil Jones neil at aurinia.co.uk

1st April 2022




From voiceofthefair at gmail.com  Fri Apr  1 08:20:17 2022
From: voiceofthefair at gmail.com (Steve Plumb)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 08:20:17 -0400
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
In-Reply-To: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
Message-ID: <B23283C9-16B0-4CE2-86AA-FBF2154838E4@gmail.com>

Amazing, I had expected the numbers to be way down. I assumed the migration had stalled as the woods here in Maine were full of Monarchs all winter long. In fact it wasn't until just today, April 1st, that the butterflies are beginning to disperse.

Steve Plumb

> On Apr 1, 2022, at 7:20 AM, Neil Jones <neil at aurinia.co.uk> wrote:
> 
> The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable revelation.
> 
> The results of a top secret research project have finally been revealed to the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement across the scientific community. A research group of paleontologists has been working in the area of the colonies and they have made some remarkable finds.
> 
> Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has shown they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named Gigantopithecus epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 foot tall orangutan which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel forests.
> 
> Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.
> 
>  Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 years ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers."
> 
> Neil Jones neil at aurinia.co.uk
> 
> 1st April 2022
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Leps-l mailing list
> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l


From mariposa at iastate.edu  Fri Apr  1 12:18:32 2022
From: mariposa at iastate.edu (Bitzer, Royce J)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 16:18:32 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
In-Reply-To: <B23283C9-16B0-4CE2-86AA-FBF2154838E4@gmail.com>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
 <B23283C9-16B0-4CE2-86AA-FBF2154838E4@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <DM8PR04MB81670345A38A6AF9B6900AB8C5E09@DM8PR04MB8167.namprd04.prod.outlook.com>

Yes, and I?ve heard something about these apes having domesticated unicorns as pack animals.  It?s doubtful if adult Gigantopithecus actually rode them, though, as the apes were much too large for anything horse-sized to have supported their weight.

Sent from Mail<https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for Windows

From: Steve Plumb<mailto:voiceofthefair at gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 7:20 AM
To: Neil Jones<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk>
Cc: dplex-l at lists.ku.edu<mailto:dplex-l at lists.ku.edu>; leps-l at mailman.yale.edu<mailto:leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

Amazing, I had expected the numbers to be way down. I assumed the migration had stalled as the woods here in Maine were full of Monarchs all winter long. In fact it wasn't until just today, April 1st, that the butterflies are beginning to disperse.

Steve Plumb

> On Apr 1, 2022, at 7:20 AM, Neil Jones <neil at aurinia.co.uk> wrote:
>
> The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable revelation.
>
> The results of a top secret research project have finally been revealed to the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement across the scientific community. A research group of paleontologists has been working in the area of the colonies and they have made some remarkable finds.
>
> Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has shown they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named Gigantopithecus epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 foot tall orangutan which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel forests.
>
> Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.
>
>  Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 years ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers."
>
> Neil Jones neil at aurinia.co.uk
>
> 1st April 2022
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Leps-l mailing list
> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220401/f5ba6509/attachment-0001.html>

From rcech at nyc.rr.com  Fri Apr  1 12:22:57 2022
From: rcech at nyc.rr.com (rcech at nyc.rr.com)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 12:22:57 -0400
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
In-Reply-To: <DM8PR04MB81670345A38A6AF9B6900AB8C5E09@DM8PR04MB8167.namprd04.prod.outlook.com>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
 <B23283C9-16B0-4CE2-86AA-FBF2154838E4@gmail.com>
 <DM8PR04MB81670345A38A6AF9B6900AB8C5E09@DM8PR04MB8167.namprd04.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <002101d845e4$c0785040$4168f0c0$@nyc.rr.com>

Well, I don't believe that since unicorns are notoriously mythical. But
Equus giganteus, now there's a steed fit for Gigantopithecus! The dressage
was awesome to behold, I imagine.

 

From: Leps-l <leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu> On Behalf Of Bitzer, Royce J
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 12:19 PM
To: Monarch Butterfly discussion list <dplex-l at lists.ku.edu>;
leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Neil Jones
<neil at aurinia.co.uk>
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

 

Yes, and I've heard something about these apes having domesticated unicorns
as pack animals.  It's doubtful if adult Gigantopithecus actually rode them,
though, as the apes were much too large for anything horse-sized to have
supported their weight.

 

Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986>  for Windows

 

From: Steve Plumb <mailto:voiceofthefair at gmail.com> 
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 7:20 AM
To: Neil Jones <mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk> 
Cc: dplex-l at lists.ku.edu <mailto:dplex-l at lists.ku.edu> ;
leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <mailto:leps-l at mailman.yale.edu> 
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

 

Amazing, I had expected the numbers to be way down. I assumed the migration
had stalled as the woods here in Maine were full of Monarchs all winter
long. In fact it wasn't until just today, April 1st, that the butterflies
are beginning to disperse.

Steve Plumb

> On Apr 1, 2022, at 7:20 AM, Neil Jones <neil at aurinia.co.uk
<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk> > wrote:
> 
> The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch
overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable revelation.
> 
> The results of a top secret research project have finally been revealed to
the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement across the
scientific community. A research group of paleontologists has been working
in the area of the colonies and they have made some remarkable finds.
> 
> Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been
unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has shown
they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named Gigantopithecus
epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 foot tall orangutan
which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel forests.
> 
> Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done
with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.
> 
>  Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It
seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 years
ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers."
> 
> Neil Jones neil at aurinia.co.uk <mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk> 
> 
> 1st April 2022
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Leps-l mailing list
> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <mailto:Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu> 
> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <mailto:Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu> 
https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220401/d017cba6/attachment.html>

From dyanega at gmail.com  Fri Apr  1 11:25:14 2022
From: dyanega at gmail.com (Douglas Yanega)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 08:25:14 -0700
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
In-Reply-To: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
Message-ID: <c0864efa-eae0-8925-7ed5-6d480d8236b5@gmail.com>

On 4/1/22 4:20 AM, Neil Jones wrote:
> The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch 
> overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable 
> revelation.
>
> The results of a top secret research project have finally been 
> revealed to the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement 
> across the scientific community. A research group of paleontologists 
> has been working in the area of the colonies and they have made some 
> remarkable finds.
>
> Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been 
> unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has 
> shown they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named 
> Gigantopithecus epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 
> foot tall orangutan which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel 
> forests.
>
> Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done 
> with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.
>
> ?Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It 
> seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 
> years ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers." 

I've been helping Jan identify the remains of monarchs in the same 
deposits, and genetic work on some well-preserved tissue reveals they 
are different enough from modern monarchs to be classified as a 
different taxon, Danaus plexippus fallax. Very surprising how much 
genetic change has occurred in a geologically small interval!

Peace,

-- 
Doug Yanega      Dept. of Entomology       Entomology Research Museum
Univ. of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0314     skype: dyanega
phone: (951) 827-4315 (disclaimer: opinions are mine, not UCR's)
              https://faculty.ucr.edu/~heraty/yanega.html
   "There are some enterprises in which a careful disorderliness
         is the true method" - Herman Melville, Moby Dick, Chap. 82


From mariposa at iastate.edu  Fri Apr  1 13:22:17 2022
From: mariposa at iastate.edu (Bitzer, Royce J)
Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2022 17:22:17 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!
In-Reply-To: <002101d845e4$c0785040$4168f0c0$@nyc.rr.com>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
 <B23283C9-16B0-4CE2-86AA-FBF2154838E4@gmail.com>
 <DM8PR04MB81670345A38A6AF9B6900AB8C5E09@DM8PR04MB8167.namprd04.prod.outlook.com>
 <002101d845e4$c0785040$4168f0c0$@nyc.rr.com>
Message-ID: <DM8PR04MB8167006CBB96F367043E5583C5E09@DM8PR04MB8167.namprd04.prod.outlook.com>

Indeed!  Equus giganteus (prehistoric-fauna.com)<https://prehistoric-fauna.com/Equus-giganteus#:~:text=Equus%20giganteus%2C%20the%20largest%20known%20species%20of%20fossil,large%20as%20or%20larger%20than%20most%20draft%20horses.>

Sent from Mail<https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for Windows

From: rcech at nyc.rr.com<mailto:rcech at nyc.rr.com>
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 11:24 AM
To: Bitzer, Royce J<mailto:mariposa at iastate.edu>; 'Monarch Butterfly discussion list'<mailto:dplex-l at lists.ku.edu>; leps-l at mailman.yale.edu<mailto:leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; 'Neil Jones'<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk>
Subject: RE: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

Well, I don?t believe that since unicorns are notoriously mythical. But Equus giganteus, now there?s a steed fit for Gigantopithecus! The dressage was awesome to behold, I imagine.

From: Leps-l <leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu> On Behalf Of Bitzer, Royce J
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 12:19 PM
To: Monarch Butterfly discussion list <dplex-l at lists.ku.edu>; leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Neil Jones <neil at aurinia.co.uk>
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

Yes, and I?ve heard something about these apes having domesticated unicorns as pack animals.  It?s doubtful if adult Gigantopithecus actually rode them, though, as the apes were much too large for anything horse-sized to have supported their weight.

Sent from Mail<https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for Windows

From: Steve Plumb<mailto:voiceofthefair at gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, April 1, 2022 7:20 AM
To: Neil Jones<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk>
Cc: dplex-l at lists.ku.edu<mailto:dplex-l at lists.ku.edu>; leps-l at mailman.yale.edu<mailto:leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Remarkable news!

Amazing, I had expected the numbers to be way down. I assumed the migration had stalled as the woods here in Maine were full of Monarchs all winter long. In fact it wasn't until just today, April 1st, that the butterflies are beginning to disperse.

Steve Plumb

> On Apr 1, 2022, at 7:20 AM, Neil Jones <neil at aurinia.co.uk<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk>> wrote:
>
> The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies has been explained today in a remarkable revelation.
>
> The results of a top secret research project have finally been revealed to the public. The findings have caused ripples of excitement across the scientific community. A research group of paleontologists has been working in the area of the colonies and they have made some remarkable finds.
>
> Subfossil bones dating back to around only 2 millennia ago have been unearthed from the nearby forest. Detailed examination by experts has shown they belong to an giant species of ape. The ape named Gigantopithecus epimenides by experts is believed to be an extinct 10 foot tall orangutan which lived swinging from the trees in the oyalmel forests.
>
> Work on excavating the bones delayed the counting work but it was done with extreme care to avoid disturbing the butterflies.
>
>  Professor Jan van Leugenaarsdorp of San Serriffe University said,"It seems there really were bigfoot creatures around until at least 2000 years ago and it does appear they were monarch watchers."
>
> Neil Jones neil at aurinia.co.uk<mailto:neil at aurinia.co.uk>
>
> 1st April 2022
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Leps-l mailing list
> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu<mailto:Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu<mailto:Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l


-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220401/cc933326/attachment-0001.html>

From monarch at saber.net  Sat Apr  2 03:17:42 2022
From: monarch at saber.net (Paul Cherubini)
Date: Sat, 2 Apr 2022 00:17:42 -0700
Subject: [Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the
 Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.
In-Reply-To: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
Message-ID: <5BBE7AA6-0A06-4FB4-8C92-A474CA106238@saber.net>

Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr. 
Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about 
50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures 
in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video: 
https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A <https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A>

If Chip?s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg>

I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a 
strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed 
and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on 
August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q <https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q>

Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North 
"fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the 
Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a 
stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill 
country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg>

If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
Population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg>

We should know one way or the other sometime this month.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220402/e51b1ea0/attachment.html>

From chip at ku.edu  Sat Apr  2 12:37:03 2022
From: chip at ku.edu (Taylor Jr, Orley R)
Date: Sat, 2 Apr 2022 16:37:03 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the
 Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.
In-Reply-To: <5BBE7AA6-0A06-4FB4-8C92-A474CA106238@saber.net>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
 <5BBE7AA6-0A06-4FB4-8C92-A474CA106238@saber.net>
Message-ID: <9E1792FB-B5E5-41BE-8D17-C74509E60C48@home.ku.edu>

Paul et al: Yes, there have been some reports from Mexico suggesting that my prediction was too pessimistic. Over the years my predictions have often been on the low side of the real numbers though I was spot on in 2000 with a prediction of 2 hectares. When making my prediction for 2001, I also looked at the roost counts and the numbers reported per roost. I compared those numbers with previous years, but unlike you, I didn?t regard these numbers to be indicative of a population larger than the 2.1 hectares reported in 2000 partly because the migration east of Madison contributes less to the ow numbers than the roosts to the West of Madison.

Your graphs indicate hectares when it seems you are referring to acres. Your 7 acres when converted is 2.83 hectares - and if the numbers of occupied threes at El Rosario we were repeatedly told about were accurate - you could be right.


Chip Taylor[cid:E7FD9FA8-0FDC-477C-B2CA-2AB4734CC004 at bbrouter]Director,
Monarch Watch,
University of Kansas
chip at ku.edu<mailto:chip at ku.edu>




On Apr 2, 2022, at 2:17 AM, Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net<mailto:monarch at saber.net>> wrote:

Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr.
Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about
50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures
in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video:
https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A

If Chip?s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg

I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a
strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed
and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on
August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q

Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North
"fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the
Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a
stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill
country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg

If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
Population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg

We should know one way or the other sometime this month.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220402/25e02bef/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: monarch-population-figure-monarchwatch-2021.png
Type: image/png
Size: 497844 bytes
Desc: monarch-population-figure-monarchwatch-2021.png
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220402/25e02bef/attachment-0001.png>

From chip at ku.edu  Sat Apr  2 12:53:50 2022
From: chip at ku.edu (Taylor Jr, Orley R)
Date: Sat, 2 Apr 2022 16:53:50 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the
 Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.
In-Reply-To: <9E1792FB-B5E5-41BE-8D17-C74509E60C48@home.ku.edu>
References: <341eadb9-68ce-3707-32f7-431709a1e987@aurinia.co.uk>
 <5BBE7AA6-0A06-4FB4-8C92-A474CA106238@saber.net>
 <9E1792FB-B5E5-41BE-8D17-C74509E60C48@home.ku.edu>
Message-ID: <F52460B1-9867-4FFF-8C33-86B2CDC71659@home.ku.edu>

Trees vs threes. Sorry, I must have been thinking of the Final Four game today.

Rock Chalk.

Chip Taylor
Director,
Monarch Watch,
University of Kansas
chip at ku.edu




> On Apr 2, 2022, at 11:37 AM, Taylor Jr, Orley R <chip at ku.edu> wrote:
> 
> Paul et al: Yes, there have been some reports from Mexico suggesting that my prediction was too pessimistic. Over the years my predictions have often been on the low side of the real numbers though I was spot on in 2000 with a prediction of 2 hectares. When making my prediction for 2001, I also looked at the roost counts and the numbers reported per roost. I compared those numbers with previous years, but unlike you, I didn?t regard these numbers to be indicative of a population larger than the 2.1 hectares reported in 2000 partly because the migration east of Madison contributes less to the ow numbers than the roosts to the West of Madison.
> 
> Your graphs indicate hectares when it seems you are referring to acres. Your 7 acres when converted is 2.83 hectares - and if the numbers of occupied threes at El Rosario we were repeatedly told about were accurate - you could be right. 
> 
> 
> Chip Taylor<monarch-population-figure-monarchwatch-2021.png>Director,
> Monarch Watch,
> University of Kansas
> chip at ku.edu
> 
> 
> 
> 
>> On Apr 2, 2022, at 2:17 AM, Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net> wrote:
>> 
>> Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr. 
>> Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about 
>> 50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures 
>> in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video: 
>> https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A
>> 
>> If Chip?s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
>> population graph will look like this:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg
>> 
>> I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a 
>> strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed 
>> and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on 
>> August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q
>> 
>> Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North 
>> "fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the 
>> Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a 
>> stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill 
>> country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg
>> 
>> If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
>> Population graph will look like this:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg
>> 
>> We should know one way or the other sometime this month.
>> 
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
>> _______________________________________________
>> Leps-l mailing list
>> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
>> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Leps-l mailing list
> Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l


From jeff at mineralmovies.com  Tue Apr 12 18:57:24 2022
From: jeff at mineralmovies.com (jeff at mineralmovies.com)
Date: Tue, 12 Apr 2022 22:57:24 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] Adela purpurea from Salem, CT 2022
Message-ID: <002401d84ec0$ad44e350$07cea9f0$@mineralmovies.com>

Just thought you might enjoy this photo.  First (and only) one I have seen so far, from yesterday, April 10, 2022.  Lekking above pussy willow.  He almost seems to be dragging his legs as a rudder.



Jeff Fast
www.MineralMovies.com<http://www.MineralMovies.com>
(860) 985 - 6321



-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220412/d82b8786/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Picture (Device Independent Bitmap) 1.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 17656 bytes
Desc: Picture (Device Independent Bitmap) 1.jpg
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220412/d82b8786/attachment-0001.jpg>

From monarchrst at aol.com  Tue Apr 12 22:27:12 2022
From: monarchrst at aol.com (monarchrst at aol.com)
Date: Wed, 13 Apr 2022 02:27:12 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [Leps-l] Adela purpurea from Salem, CT 2022
In-Reply-To: <002401d84ec0$ad44e350$07cea9f0$@mineralmovies.com>
References: <002401d84ec0$ad44e350$07cea9f0$@mineralmovies.com>
Message-ID: <143964516.238059.1649816832249@mail.yahoo.com>

Great photo of a great little beauty.? Ian Watkinson.


-----Original Message-----
From: jeff at mineralmovies.com <jeff at mineralmovies.com>
To: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
Sent: Tue, Apr 12, 2022 3:57 pm
Subject: [Leps-l] Adela purpurea from Salem, CT 2022

 <!--#yiv8227574152 .yiv8227574152EmailQuote {margin-left:1pt;padding-left:4pt;border-left:#800000 2px solid;}-->Just thought you might enjoy this photo.? First (and only) one I have seen so far, from yesterday, April 10, 2022.? Lekking above pussy willow.? He almost seems to be dragging his legs as a rudder.? ?Jeff Fastwww.MineralMovies.com(860) 985 - 6321???_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
https://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220413/759ea94f/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Picture (Device Independent Bitmap) 1.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 17656 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220413/759ea94f/attachment-0001.jpg>

From jshuey at TNC.ORG  Mon Apr 25 10:48:18 2022
From: jshuey at TNC.ORG (John Shuey)
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 14:48:18 +0000
Subject: [Leps-l] Honduras Butterfly Tour - January 2023
Message-ID: <BN6PR19MB00987503CEB7CD67FCE31F1BCFF89@BN6PR19MB0098.namprd19.prod.outlook.com>

Robert Gallardo is hosting a butterfly tour for the Lake Yajoa region. The primary focus will be Emerald Valley, know to support over 700 species.  Robert has encouraged luxurious stands of mist flower in the Valley, which when in full bloom (and it should be in January) pulls butterflies that are seldom seen down from the adjacent forest canopy.  An trip extension to higher altitude forest is available.  Multiple travel agents in the US and Europe are working to support this trip.  https://prohn.org/en/news-en/honduran-butterfly-conservation-tour-january-2023/


Proceeds from the Tour will be used to publish an identification guide to the butterflies of Honduras.  The book is already finished and will contain over 100 pages of color photos of nearly 1,200 species (in all 6 families) that occur in Honduras. Concise text will also be given for each species.   Robert previously published the "Guide to the Birds of Honduras", and this is a similar effort designed to enhance ecotourism opportunities in a biologically rich country that could use some incentive to enhance conservation.


Check out this link for a nice video. -

https://youtu.be/k3Gpmc9o8lI

John
  Please consider the environment before printing this email
________________________________
John A Shuey, PhD
Director of Conservation Science

jshuey at tnc.org<mailto:jshuey at tnc.org>
317.829.3898 - direct
317.951.8818 - front desk
317.917.2478 - Fax

nature.org<http://nature.org>

The Nature Conservancy
Indiana Field Office
620 E. Ohio St.
Indianapolis, IN 46202

[http://nature.org/images/emailsig_logo.gif]


-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220425/8b6edc97/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.gif
Type: image/gif
Size: 53 bytes
Desc: image001.gif
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220425/8b6edc97/attachment.gif>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.gif
Type: image/gif
Size: 3343 bytes
Desc: image002.gif
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220425/8b6edc97/attachment-0001.gif>

From entomike at gmail.com  Mon Apr 25 14:22:13 2022
From: entomike at gmail.com (Mike Quinn)
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2022 13:22:13 -0500
Subject: [Leps-l] "Adventures in New Mexico Butterflies" - ABF Presentation
 tonight - Apr. 25 @ 7pm CST
Message-ID: <CAGTsNOuyY_Z+R-ZrzTdRkgeC5udFxpssdAL4AX8Upb5MYNWZew@mail.gmail.com>

Greetings,

First, I want to thank John Acorn for his excellent presentation last month
on "The Ways in which Butterflies Fly". We had a bit of technical
difficulties initially, which John later determined were due to his service
provider. Fortunately, John powered through, and we all enjoyed the
majority of his insightful lecture!

We hope Steve Cary's much anticipated presentation tonight will be glitch
free!

Note, there will be NO in-person meeting this month. Zoom only.

Our meetings (in person or via Zoom) are open to all, hope you can join us!

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86426006695

==========================================

April Meeting - Monday, April 25th, at 7 pm (Central Time)

Adventures in New Mexico Butterflies -- presented by Steve Cary.

Born and raised in the Upper Midwest, Steve earned his M.S. at the
University of Wisconsin. After coming to New Mexico in 1980, Steve worked
professionally for 35 years in resource management, environmental
protection and nature conservation. Butterflies have always been Steve?s
passion and he has published a variety of scientific and popular articles
on his favorite creatures. Through countless butterfly talks and guided
walks, he has become New Mexico's Butterfly Guy. New Mexico Magazine
published his book, Butterfly Landscapes of New Mexico, in 2009. He
self-published a biography of 19th-Century naturalist Winslow Howard in
2020. For the last two years he has been blogging about New Mexico
butterflies and collaborating with Mike Toliver to assemble an on-line
field guide to Butterflies of New Mexico.

Check out some of his work at Pajarito Environmental Education
Center/Butterflies
https://peecnature.org/2021-in-new-mexico-butterflies/

Join Zoom Meeting Here (starting around 6:30 pm Central Time

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86426006695

Link is also on the Austin Butterfly Forum home page:
http://austinbutterflies.org/

============================================

Mike Quinn, vp programs and acting president
Austin Butterfly Forum
512-577-0250 - cell
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.yale.edu/pipermail/leps-l/attachments/20220425/fe3cb86d/attachment-0001.html>