RV: Global Warming, etc

Dawn, Douglas Douglas.Dawn at alliedsignal.com
Fri Sep 12 22:50:00 EDT 1997

From: Dawn, Douglas
To: Dave Chesmore
Subject: RE: Global Warming, etc
Date: Viernes 12 de Septiembre de 1997 6:06PM

Dr David Chesmore, FRES Wrote:
>>>>Neil mentioned the overwhelming scientific concensus for global
>>>>warming.  There is an increasing body of scientists who consider this
>>>>is not the case.
>>>>My personal view is that the earth system is too poorly understood to
>>>>be able to make good predictions and models.  The existing
>>>>mathematical models on which global temperatures are predicted are
>>>>very crude
Just because we can't develop an
equation to predict the shape vs. time of a flame in an almost still
environment at almost constant vapor compositions and pressures
and temperatures, doesn't mean we can't reasonably suspect
that we might get burned by it, if we have seen that playing with
in the lab under certain conditions can lead to a burn.

I am not very good at analogies, but I try.
I assume that David is as concerned as I about what happens to
the fishbowl in we live in, just took this opportunity to focus on
the inability to accurately measure a phenomenon not meaning that
controlled experiments showing potential risk should be ignored until
99.7% probability is proven.  When such risks are involved,
my personal view would be:  There is no general
concensus yet that the CFC/Global Warming threat is not a real
risk to higher evolved ; ) life forms on our planet.

Well, back to lepidopterology, too.

Doug Dawn
stelenes at pobox.com
Monterrey, Mexico

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