b-fly releases at events

Paul Cherubini paulcher at concentric.net
Wed Sep 22 16:10:38 EDT 1999


Kenelm Philip wrote:

> However, there are historical records of _V. cardui_ having
> reached Alaska under its own power. Now that the species (which is not
> native to Alaska as far as being a breeding resident goes) is regularly
> being released within the state, it is no longer possible to check for
> its natural occurrence here.

What is your standard of risk that school releases could cause a false
Painted Lady sighting in Alaska? Can you present us with a math based
model of this risk? What mathematical assumptions would have to be made
to conclude that a bogus Painted Lady sighting might be recorded by a
lepidopterist in Alaska once every month, once every year, once every 5
years, once every 50 years or once every 500 years?  

To date, I have not found a butterfly biogeographer willing to do the
risk assemment modeling in regard to the question of possible
contamination of the sight record database.  Bob Pyle, for example, has
simply explained that his risk standard is zero. 

Paul Cherubini, Placerville, California





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