[leps-talk] Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in the news yet this winter?

[Johnson, Kurt]

Well there had been some good news until today (Febr. 12) -- front page of
NY Times and A Section based on report by Dr. L. Brower and Dr. O. Taylor of
massive die-offs (80% and upwards at the major reserves-- the worst ever!).
This is going to play out very difficultly now I think.  There had been some
good news up until this very recent event.

KURT
Dr. Kurt Johnson
re:
Monarch Watch in New York City, a program partnered with the NYC Dept. of
Parks and Recreation

-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Cherubini [mailto:monarch at saber.net]
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2002 1:24 AM
To: leps-l at lists.yale.edu
Cc: TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [leps-talk] Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in the
news yet this winter?


Perhaps because the overwintering population is about 35% higher than
normal and a whopping 3-4 times larger than last winter.
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/post.jpg  Since the days of Rachel Carson
and Paul Ehrlich it has seemed unfashionable to report good environmental
news.

But monarchs will be in the national news again within days - in the news,
of
course, to report trouble. Across the world media stories will soon appear
showcasing the heavy snow storm and freeze related mortality that occurred
in Mexico about 3 weeks ago.

http://www.saber.net/~monarch/kust1.JPG
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/kust3.jpg
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/kust2.jpg

As in all such press releases over the past 20 years, the scientists
will likely try to link the butterfly mortality to some man-caused
disturbance
of the forest (like forest thinning). No where in the articles will this
graph
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/post.jpg be shown.  Nor will the articles
mention that for 13 years monarch scientists have mistakenly been
predicting the imminent collapse of the monarch migration due to
deforestation, urban sprawl, pesticide and herbicide use and most
recently, genetically modified crops. It's just not fashionable to hold
doomsayer scientists accountable.

One focus of the upcoming media stories about the storm in Mexico
will likely be why scientists urgently need more $$$$$$ to figure out
what an ideal forest canopy structure needs to be created in Mexico
to minimize butterfly mortality in future storm events. Another focus
will be why the local people need millions more dollars in support
money (farm subsidy type payments) in exchange for not harvesting the
forests.

All this will sound very reasonable to the lay public and granting
institutions.  They will never consider the possibility that rare
catastrophic
storm related mortality events have been a normal part of the life history
of the monarch for centuries.  They will never see this graph
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/post.jpg and thus will
never know that the monarch population can more than fully
recover in just 8 months after a catastrophic storm event.

In other words, they will not know that the monarch population has
remained stable for decades and therefore that past and ongoing forestry
practices in Mexico have not adversely affected the size of the monarch
migration phenomenon.

Even more disturbing to me personally is that the scientists have not
made the local people living in and around the monarch sanctuaries aware of
this graph http://www.saber.net/~monarch/post.jpg and therefore do not
know that forestry practices in recent decades have not adversely affected
the the monarch migration phenomenon.

Paul Cherubini
Placerville, Calif.

Photos by David Kust and were lifted from the Journey North website,
http://www.learner.org/jnorth/spring2002/species/monarch/Update020702.html
without permission, in order to make downloading easy and fast
for leps-l subscribers.

TILS Motto: "We can not protect that which we do not know." © 1999 

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