[leps-talk] Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in the news yet this winter?
Paul Cherubini
monarch at saber.net
Tue Feb 12 19:34:25 EST 2002
I originally wrote:
> the monarch overwintering population in Mexico this
> winter was 35% above normal and 3.34 times as large as
> last winter.
Dr. Kurt Johnson responded:
> it still doesn't add up-- 35% increase in the Monarch's
>returning to Mexico from a bumper year of good breeding
>weather up north, still does not solve the problem of a
>circa 50% loss of available forest land for overwintering
>in Mexico
Cherubini follow up:
Dr. Johnson, I did not say there was a 35% increase in the
numbers of monarchs returning to Mexico this winter as
compared to last winter. I said there were 3.34 times as many.
Specifically, 93.35 million monarchs in Mexico this winter
vs. 28 million last winter = 333% increase.
>still does not solve the problem of a circa 50% loss of
>available forest land for overwintering in Mexico
I don't understand your point. My point is that the census
data indicates the size of the monarch overwintering
in Mexico has been stable from 1985-2001
Here is the raw census data:
Number of butterflies overwintering in Mexico
1985 80 million
1987 46 million
1988 40 million
1989 92 million
1990 120 million
1994 78 million
1995 125 million
1996 179 million
1997 32 million
1998 53 million
1999 60 million
2000 28 million
2001 93 million (my graph said 100 million, but 93.35
is the official census number
that just came in today)
Average: 76.7 million
Thus we see the numbers overwintering in Mexico
this winter are above average and 333% larger than
last winter. We also see there is no upward or
downward trend in the census figures.
Therefore is there any scientific evidence here that forestry
practices in Mexico or agricultural practices in
the USA have been harmful to monarchs in recent
decades? No.
So I don't understand your comment:
>still does not solve the problem of a circa 50% loss of
>available forest land for overwintering in Mexico.
Can you elaborate on this?
Thanks,
Paul Cherubini
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