[leps-talk] Why aren't Mexico's overwintering monarchs in the news yet this winter?

[Neil Jones]

In message <3C6AD41F.1064 at saber.net> Paul Cherubini writes:
> 
> 
> In my opinion, the satellite and ground photos of the overwintering 
> sites taken over the past 25 - 30 years do not support your statement
> that there has been a "50% loss of available forest land for 
> overwintering in Mexico."
> 
> For example, here are the historical 1973 vs 2000 infared satellite 
> photos of the two main overwintering colonies in Mexico where 70% of 
> the monarchs overwinter. http://www.saber.net/~monarch/changes1.JPG
> 
> Red =            forest
> Tan =            bare ground (farm land or meadows)
> White dots = known colony locations over the years
> White lines = butterfly reserve boundaries (the old ones)
> 
> Llittle change in the forest coverage is evident.
> 
> Paul Cherubini

Here we go again. As you are well aware, because it has been discussed before,
you  are using a selective subset of the real data in order to support a
contention which would not be supported by the full set of data.

Whilst in the examples you cite the satelite photographs do not show the
full extent of the damage the examples you have left out show more.
This has been exacerbated by your shrinking the photographs which removes
even more data. Some of the data you have ommitted, which can be found at:-

http://www.wildlifewebsite.com/huacal.html
and
http://www.wildlifewebsite.com/pelonin.html

_Do_ show deforestation but you have conveniently ommitted them from 
your analysis. This shows that your contention is clearly logically
inaccurate.

Given that deforestation is a problem in large parts of the world. It would
seem surprising that it was not a problem in Mexico.

This extraordiary claim by you would require extraordinary evidence. 
Not only have you failed to provide this you have undermined your case by
producing massaged data to lead people into false conclusions.

-- 
Neil Jones- Neil at nwjones.demon.co.uk http://www.nwjones.demon.co.uk/
"At some point I had to stand up and be counted. Who speaks for the
butterflies?" Andrew Lees - The quotation on his memorial at Crymlyn Bog
National Nature Reserve

 
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