numbers game or counting- Forgot something

[Anne Kilmer]

Lynn Scott wrote:

> I've been following this thread about counts with a kind of horrid 
> fascination, and trying to imagine what I would be able to count if we 
> had a one-night moth count in my area of Ottawa, Canada if I were the 
> only person participating.  Answer is, anywhere from 0 to about 20 
> species at my location, in quantities anywhere from 0 to 25 or so, 
> depending on the date, the weather, and how many times I actually looked 
> to see what was there.  In actual fact, over 2000 species of lepidoptera 
> have been recorded from the Ottawa area, and in just over two years 
> within 25 feet of my own front door I have photographed at least 500 
> species, many of which I have yet to identify (and when I started taking 
> pictures, I was naively expecting that there might be 50 or 100 
> different kinds of moth around here).  The problem is that many of these 
> moths are very seasonal, and if you're not looking when they're flying, 
> you simply won't know if they're flying in your area at all.  I assume 
> the same would be true of many butterflies.
> 
> So I guess my question is whether the purpose of these counts is to 
> ascertain how many of "something" happen to be around at a particular 
> time, or whether the purpose is to find out how many kinds of 
> "something" happen to be around at all, or both?  And then there's also 
> the question of whether a specific "something" is present at a time 
> because it normally would be around at that time, or whether it is there 
> because of some freak of wind and weather conditions.  Whatever the 
> purpose of counting, it seems to me that a common understanding of that 
> purpose and broadly consistent practices are needed, or the data 
> accumulated in the count(s) may have rather limited use.
> 
> My apologies if I sound as though I'm being deliberately obtuse.
> 
> Lynn Scott
> 
> 

Well, now. As I understand the purpose of the NABA count, it pretty well 
amounts to "Let's get among them", as Leroy would say.
It's a nice party, many neophytes are introduced to the wonders of 
butterflying, and everyone has a good time.
The press comes along and takes pictures of Alana in her shorts, with 
her lovely long legs, swinging her net, or whatever pretty girl they 
happen to have on hand, and maybe a picture of a butterfly sitting very 
still, and you get a bit of publicity, which is also nice.
As to scientific accuracy, you probably get an accurate count on the 
participants.

I agree that the choice of date is an annoying one ... wasn't Xerces 
Society using that same date, before NABA "hijacked it"? The idea was 
probably to choose a date when the weather was reasonably agreeable 
everywhere, and when Canada wasn't under a thick layer of snow ... not 
to mention New York.
As a Floridian, I don't find July agreeable. That's why I now spend 
summers in Ireland. We have a fourth of July here, too, you know; just 
not a Fourth.

The count circle is, of course, arranged to include as many butterfly 
gardens as possible. We were able to include the zoo and Mounts 
Botanical Garden in one of our count circles in the Atala Chapter (West 
Palm Beach, Florida and environs) and, in fact, had three circles, so as 
to include as many of the local private butterfly gardens as possible. 
Made for great bragging.
But I imagine that people counting a transect choose a place where there 
are butterflies. Success is a great motivator.

Conditions change, but the count circles remain the same. If the zoo 
stops being kind to butterflies, if the Mounts starts using pesticides 
or releasing butterflies at weddings, there it still is in the circle, 
and the change is documented.
   Enough real butterfliers accompany each counting group, net in hand, 
to make sure that counts are as accurate as possible. Y'all have 
discussed exhaustively the perils of estimating, and the neglect of 
sub-species and difficult identifications. Obviously all Checkered 
Skippers, for instance, are suspect in the South, unless you've turned 
up their little tails. That's why the nets are there.
Assuming that the same counters attend every time, your count accuracy 
is stable. Where Bob Beiringer is counting, for instance, you can be 
sure the count is well done and scientifically as accurate as possible.

As a scientific endeavor, the NABA count is flawed. We are mere mortals.
As a brag, the count is flawed ... it's not timed for the part of the 
year that our species are there and easy to see ... that's true for many 
of you. But it isn't the point.
As a way of getting public attention for butterflies and butterfliers, 
it's just fine. It gets good PR, people enjoy it, they get out in the 
lovely countryside, see plenty of bugs, and if a good butterfly spot 
becomes a condominium, they see this, sorrow for it, and complain to the 
powers that be.

Me, I think we should do the count in December. Barb might not agree.
Back when I was active in the chapter, before my health went west, we 
talked of doing four counts a year. I don't think we ever followed 
through on that, but it would certainly have made the count more 
interesting. I see Kenelm, pattering across the taiga on May First
(The first of May, the first of May,
Outdoor loving begins today)
with his little net, poking about the dwarf willows in search of 
unfrozen larvae ...
And everybody has a First of May, though here and there this date, too, 
has political connections.
I think it would be fun to do the counts on the Solstices and the 
Equinoxes, and let the butts fall where they may. Too bad for those of 
you who will have to count six Small Tortoiseshells (hibernating in the 
woodshed) and a Red Admiral (likewise, in the study) ... I'm all right, 
Jack.
As for me, the swallows are back, lambs are dashing across the pasture 
far below me, racing the gulls; it is a bright and sunshiny morning, and 
it's hard to believe that gales and hail are predicted, again, for the 
day. It's a fine day not to be a butterfly.
Cheers
Anne Kilmer
Mayo, Ireland




 
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