It's fall and time for a new round of Monarch:PNAS Abstract
MexicoDoug at aol.com
MexicoDoug at aol.com
Wed Nov 12 12:57:58 EST 2003
Hmmmm...the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences...Perhaps we need a Proceedings of the North American Academy of Sciences on this
one...Paul can be president. I would join if it were free.
What's wrong with being a biased scientist, working your ass off to get
tenure (not confirmed), all winter long, finally submitting the product of your
labor and passion around March, generating original peer-reviewed research, on
subjects of interest, that makes the cut past perhaps (or not)the sympathetic
reviewers of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and gets
published 6 months later as is typical for the review process, in this past
Monday's Issue, November 11, 2003? I would hardly dismiss it as "another annual
phenomenon of press releases" from the spin doctors that would be. Why not
actually read the article first, available from the pnas.org website, and then keep
the Lepidopterist in question in the loop. I imagine that after spending all
winter of '02-'03 working on this she would have something very intersting to
say on the subject. Like whether this is a Chicken Little scenario or whether
it is an original attempt to understand something that too many complain that
no "real research" is being done about. Even the bane of the monarch
research establishment should give recognition when deserved. Not to say that the
bane's comments are not appreciated they are when backed up by reasonably
convincing facts.
What I find interesting is that Oberhauser's last publication in the P.N.A.S.
was one that was the 2001 so-called "round of Monarch extinction" concluding
that "This 2-year study suggests that the impact of Bt corn pollen from
current commercial hybrids on monarch butterfly populations is negligible". (see
abstract below)
It looks clear to me that the Lepidopterist authors got a hold of some
climate prediction software, were convinced it could make a good study, and decided
to investigate its application to modeling the Monarch migration-survival.
Sounds fair to me. What's the problem, especially if it is state of the art
modeling? That the authors like monarchs and are concerned for their welfare,
and have made a career out of it? That some folks are in denial about climate
change (hey-this is a fact of life and time), that they get favorable press
that does its job to process the info in a way that it sells? Or simply that
some folks are bored of hearing about monarchs, because they get more turned on
by other bugs that don't have such a geographically complex annual life cycle?
If so, rather than complain about the monarch getting attention, why not JUST
DO IT, and do something like get your own software, ideas, original
enthusiasm, organize it, spend the winter working your ass off to produce a final
product for consumption by the scientific community with all the real life and
newspaper opportunity you want, subjecting it to the critical comments of every
Tom, Dick and Sally who has something to say. And if not so dedicated, come on
down to Michoacán some winterime without an axe to grind, sit back, kick off
your shoes, lie on your back on a nice wool blanket, and daydream a bit while
you simply appreciate these aggregates of butterflies in a rather unlikely
place. Then imagine the actual migration trip made with Monarchs with Cherubini,
Brower, Taylor, Oberhauser, and your own face on each butterfly (just
kidding).
And to those friends who say that in 50 years it really doesn't matter
much...or critically, is not observable, lucky Einstein didn't feel that way about
his theories, which initially received a good hogwashing, too. Gee, why spend
so much on archaelogical expeditions studying milliones of years in the past,
or Astroresearch billions of years into the past,,,and future. Is the
N.E.A.R. program equally a waste, then? I am not suggesting that this compares with
Einstein's work. Just that the scientific method is the best we've got and
requires an organized investment of efforts...in order for advancement of
Science in general...
Best butterflying, Doug Dawn
Monterrey, Mexico
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.2331584100
Ecology
Modeling current and future potential wintering distributions of eastern
North American monarch butterflies
Karen Oberhauser * and A. Townsend Peterson
*Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of
Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; and Natural History Museum and Biodiversity
Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045
Edited by G. David Tilman, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and
approved September 23, 2003 (received for review March 19, 2003)
Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir
forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies
to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to
identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both current and
future climate scenarios. The ENM approach permits testing and validation of
model predictivity, and yields quantitative, testable predictions regarding
likely future climate change effects. Our models predicted monarch presence with a
high degree of accuracy, and indicated that precipitation and diurnal
temperature range were key environmental factors in making locations suitable for
monarchs. When we projected monarch distribution onto future climate scenarios
(Hadley Centre climate models), we found that conditions were likely to be
inadequate across the entire current winter range, particularly owing to increased
cool-weather precipitation that could cause increased mortality. This study
applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under
climate change, and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters
in species’ responses to climate change.
To whom correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail: oberh001 at umn.edu.
Impact of Bt corn pollen on monarch butterfly populations: A risk assessment.
Mark K. Sears*,, Richard L. Hellmich, Diane E. Stanley-Horn*, Karen S.
Oberhauser§, John M. Pleasants¶, Heather R. Mattila*, Blair D. Siegfried, and Galen
P. Dively**
* Department of Environmental Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON,
Canada N1G 2W1; United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research
Service, Corn Insects and Crop Genetics Research Unit and Department of
Entomology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011; § Department of Ecology and
Evolutionary Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; ¶ Department of
Zoology and Genetics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011; Department of
Entomology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583; and ** Department of
Entomology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742
Edited by M. R. Berenbaum, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,
Urbana, IL, and approved August 17, 2001 (received for review June 28, 2001)
A collaborative research effort by scientists in several states and in Canada
has produced information to develop a formal risk assessment of the impact of
Bt corn on monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) populations. Information was
sought on the acute toxic effects of Bt corn pollen and the degree to which
monarch larvae would be exposed to toxic amounts of Bt pollen on its host plant,
the common milkweed, Asclepias syriaca, found in and around cornfields.
Expression of Cry proteins, the active toxicant found in Bt corn tissues, differed
among hybrids, and especially so in the concentrations found in pollen of
different events. In most commercial hybrids, Bt expression in pollen is low, and
laboratory and field studies show no acute toxic effects at any pollen density
that would be encountered in the field. Other factors mitigating exposure of
larvae include the variable and limited overlap between pollen shed and larval
activity periods, the fact that only a portion of the monarch population
utilizes milkweed stands in and near cornfields, and the current adoption rate of
Bt corn at 19% of North American corn-growing areas. This 2-year study
suggests that the impact of Bt corn pollen from current commercial hybrids on monarch
butterfly populations is negligible.
En un mensaje con fecha 11/12/2003 12:42:00 AM Mexico Standard Time,
monarch at saber.net escribe:
> Asunto: It's fall and time for a new round of Monarch Extinction press
> releases.
> Fecha: 11/12/2003 12:42:00 AM Mexico Standard Time
> De: <A HREF="mailto:monarch at saber.net">monarch at saber.net</A>
> Para: <A HREF="mailto:leps-l at lists.yale.edu">leps-l at lists.yale.edu</A>
> CC: <A HREF="mailto:TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com">TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com</A>
> Enviado por Internet
>
>
>
> In past years, usually in the fall or winter, Dr's Lincoln Brower, Karen
>
> Oberhauser and/or Chip Taylor have made dire predictions, about the
>
> potential impacts of logging in Mexico, Bt corn, tourist trampling,
> butterfly
> releases, mosquito spraying etc, on migratory monarchs, but the migrants
>
> continue be as abundant as ever. This fall, Dr. Oberhauser has been
>
> talking to the press about an imminent new extinction threat:
>
>
> USA TODAY:
> http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2003-11-11-monarch-climate_x.htm
>
>
> CLIMATE changes may drown out monarch butterflies CBC News, Canada
> MINNEAPOLIS - A wetter climate is expected in Mexico in the next 50 years,
> which could do in monarch butterflies. Millions of colourful ...
> <http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/11/10/monarchs031110>
>
>
> BBC News, UK
> Monarch butterflies may lose their winter habitat within 50 years
> because of climate change, say researchers. Monarchs migrate thousands ...
> Monarch Butterfly May Face Climate Threat - Newsday Climate
> change in winter home may endanger Monarch butterfly, ...
> <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3257917.stm>
>
> MONARCH Butterfly May Face Climate Threat Fredericksburg.com, VA
> Monarch butterflies, which journey hundreds of miles to spend the winter
> in a mountain forest in Mexico, may be endangered within 50 years
> because a changing ...
> <http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/apmethods/apstory?urlfeed=D7UO1B401.xml>
>
> CLIMATE threatens butterfly's 2,000-mile migration Independent, UK
> ... Oberhauser added: "The relationship between winter mortality and
> weather conditions suggests climate-change may have important impacts on
> monarch butterflies.". ...
> <http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_medical/story.jsp?story=462600>
>
> MONARCH butterflies face new threat from global climate change
> Minneapolis Star Tribune (subscription), MN For eons monarch butterflies
> from the northern United States have migrated by the millions to hang from
> trees in great orange clouds high in the mountains of ...
> <http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/4204668.html>
>
> Paul Cherubini
>
>
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