Monarch Extinction press releases.

[Paul Cherubini]

MexicoDoug at aol.com wrote:

> It is never meant to be more than an exploratory study.  If the
> volley of Press-Paul make more out of it than that, I guess some
> like I guess some like to be dramatic.  Interpretations aside
> the authors deserve more ....

Well, yesturday one of the authors, Karen Oberhauser, acknowledged
that her paper about monarchs losing their winter habitat in Mexico
within 50 years due to climate change may be irrevalent because it's
possible, in her view, that all the overwintering sites in Mexico could
be lost due to logging in the more immediate future.

Specifically, she wrote on the dplex-list:

"Clearly, if the overwintering sites in Mexico are lost to logging in the
immediate future, none of this [climate change] will matter, and Town
and I point out  this concern in the paper."

Thus time and time again we see the message Karen and Lincoln Brower
are delivering to the public is that the monarch migration is in imminent
threat of extinction.

My message to the public, on the other hand, is that the forests in Mexico
where the monarchs overwinter are in great condition and not being lost
to logging and therefore the monarch migration is in no imminent threat
of extinction: Example: here is a photograph that shows the forest cover
at the largest monarch overwintering site in Mexico has stayed the same
for the past 13 years: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/19902002.jpg

The second largest site in Mexico is in a near pristine-like condition
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chincuadis.JPG

One medium sized site was hit with a forest fire during a drought
about 7 years ago but the forest is regenerating on its own and there
is plenty of left over forest that the monarchs still use
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chivati3.JPG

The other 7-8 overwintering sites in Mexico are all small to medium sized
and look just as good (except for one tiny site that has a large forest fire scar
but continues to be used by the monarchs) .

Paul Cherubini

 
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