FW: [leps-talk] Re: Monarch Extinction (substantial evidence?)

[Patrick Foley]

Paul and Norman,

The doomsayers are may be wrong, but they appear to have quantitative 
evidence about Monarch habitat loss. Paul is raising interesting points, 
but he is not dealing with the quantitative analysis Brower's team gives us.

Paul, why don't you write a comment to Conservation Biology refuting the 
peer-reviewed published papers of Lincoln Brower? Brower has sent us 
these references. To suggest that it is pure speculation ignores that 
work. If it is wrong, I want to know. If it is right I want to know. If 
it is pure speculation, I wonder how it got past review. If it needs 
more work, but makes a useful contribution, then help the work.

I have no vested interest in Brower's work. Nor do I have any special 
awe for the famous. But science does not proceed by anecdote and 
snapshots alone. If you can't deal clearly and openly with his papers, 
by challenging them or adding to them or convincing others to do so, 
then what is the point of the debate?

In a political debate, you get to intentionally misinterpret your 
opponent. In science, you actually try to understand what your 
"opponent" is saying. You try to build on it. So build something.

Patrick
patfoley at csus.edu

Paul Cherubini wrote:

> Norbert Kondla wrote:
> 
> 
>>Personally, I would
>>like to see some simple facts that back up the doomsayer predictions. If
>>anyone has a handy weblink to those simple facts that support the
>>doomsday scenario please share it.
> 
> 
> I don't know of any such website.  The doomsayer scenarios appear to
> be based on speculation as far as I can tell.  
> 
> Here are two interesting infared satellite views of the overwintering area where
> 80% of all the monarchs overwinter in Mexico:
> http://www.saber.net/~monarch/20001973.jpg
> 
> One of these photos was taken in 1973. The other photo was taken in 2000.
> Can you easily tell which of the two photos is which?  
> 
> Or is it hard to tell because the amount of pine and fir forest that has
> been cleared in recent decades has been relatively small.
> 
> Paul Cherubini
> 
>  
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