Earthshots: Satellite Images of Environmental Change: Mt. St. Helens, Washington
Patrick Foley
patfoley at csus.edu
Mon Nov 17 09:50:07 EST 2003
Paul and all,
You appear to be taking data from this page and its links. Is this what
you call speculation?
The interpretation of remote sensing and photographs is always subject
to ground truthing. Are you arguing that Brower's team has made bad
maps? That seems worth checking.
If you say their work is speculation, I have to wonder how you define
the term. There is evidence, perhaps flawed that the Monarch winter site
is degraded. It is not speculation. Read the 2002 paper in Conservation
Biology 16:346-359.
Similarly, but in much less documented form, your photographs provide
evidence that there is little degradation. I have not called your view
speculation. I have said that you need to back it up and submit
quantitative evidence for peer review.
Claiming that your "opponents" are guilty of mere speculation, cashing
in on doomsaying, and have no websites supporting their views is not
science and it is apparently not true.
For clarity, I want to emphasize that no scientist that I know thinks
the species Danauus plexippus is in danger of extinction. This weedy
butterfly has managed to thrive in Hawaii and Australia to just get
started. What seems to be in danger is the behavioral trait of the
annual migration to the oyamel fir- pine forest of Mexico. All it takes
to select against this trait is lower survivorship at the site than at
other sites. How long need this selective difference prevail? It depends
on the heritability of the trait and the strength of selection. This is
a hard trait to study in the lab so far, and it would be speculation to
guess at the heritability. Studying the winter survivorship is however
feasible and is being done. I'm glad that somebody is doing it. And I am
glad that the Mexican government is making an effort to protect the
sites. And I would be delighted by more research. It is not humanity's
most pressing need nor the Earth's. But science proceeds best when
people study what they want to study.
Patrick
patfoley at csus.edu
<http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/earthshots/slow/Angangueo/Angangueo>
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