Monarch Migration Predicted to be Extinct within 16 years

[Mark Walker]

I obviously don't have the cerebral capacity of Neil Jones to analyze and
figure out the things of life, and I am admittedly more prone to use my
heart than my mind in making decisions - I suppose that this means I will
soon be evolved out of the gene pool anyway - but if we're going to start
suggesting that Brower et al should be credited with SAVING the Monarchs,
well, then I'd like to be the first to say "poppycock".

Mark Walker.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Patrick Foley [mailto:patfoley at csus.edu]
> Sent: Tuesday, October 07, 2003 7:50 AM
> To: monarch at saber.net
> Cc: leps-l at lists.yale.edu
> Subject: Re: Monarch Migration Predicted to be Extinct within 16 years
> 
> Paul,
> 
> Is it possible that without Brower's constant harping, the Monarch's
> wintering habitat in Mexico would be more threatened than it is today?
> 
> Did Brower blunder? Or did he warn? Is the habitat in Mexico secure now?
> Brower gets ten more years on his "blunder", based on the quote you
> link. And note, Brower is not claiming that Monarchs will be extinct in
> ten years, he is claiming that the Eastern migratory phenomenon is
> likely to be extinguished. I think Brower may be wrong, partly because
> he was right to push for the protection of the overwintering sites. But
> I also think that the migratory phenomenon is more fragile than you do.
> At some point of overwintering mortality in Mexico, the Eastern monarch
> population is going to be under strong selection to avoid it.
> 
> If you are so concerned with getting the research right, why not do some
> research into that? You certainly have a right to your own constant
> harping (as does Brower), but are you helping clear up the ecology and
> evolution of this organism, or are you just pissing people off?
> 
> Obviously you know a lot about the Monarch, and your posts do provide
> some interesting insights. However you will get more respect if you
> treat others with more respect, and if you are scrupulous to avoid
> biasing your insights.
> 
> It is not the business of scientists to be infallible. We leave that to
> others. At the end of the day, Brower will surely be wrong about some
> things and right about others. And we will know a lot more baout the
> Monarch. And maybe the Eastern migratory phenomenon will be more secure.
> If his conservation organization also is rolling in money (which I
> greatly doubt), this is the least of our worries.
> 
> Enjoy the historical recall vote today!
> 
> Patrick Foley
> patfoley at csus.edu
> 
> Paul Cherubini wrote:
> > Stan wrote:
> >
> >
> >>I have to question what Dr. Brower meant by "...normal..."  If his
> >>"normal" is a 10 year moving average,  and if (as an example) the
> >>average 11 years ago was three times what it was last year, saying it is
> >>"slightly above normal" could cause one to misinterpret this to mean the
> >>Monarch is doing very well.
> >
> >
> > The total size of the monarch overwintering population in Mexico
> > is determined by measuring the total forested area occupied by the
> > butterflies.  Over the years, the total forested area occupied has been
> found
> > to range from 2 - 18 hectares and the average has been about 8 hectares
> > (= 20 acres).
> >
> > During the 2001-2002 overwintering season, the total area occupied
> > by the monarchs was found to be 9.6 hectares, so that is why Dr. Brower
> > said the size of monarch overwintering population was "slightly above
> > normal".
> >
> > Back in 1988-1991, however, Dr. Brower
> > was predicting the extinction of the monarch migratory phenomenon
> > as early as the year 2000.  For example, here is what Dr. Brower
> > wrote in the journal "American Zoologist" in 1991:
> > http://www.saber.net/~monarch/extinction2.jpg
> >
> > In spite of this blunder, Dr. Brower continues to predict the
> > extinction of the monarch migration, but has moved the date of
> > final demise up to the year 2019.
> > http://www.saber.net/~monarch/extinction.jpg
> >
> > Paul Cherubini
> >
> >
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> 
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