[leps-talk] Credible sources

[Paul Cherubini]

Ken Davenport wrote:

> In the end, as Ron Gatrelle commented...the Monarchs                                                                                                                         > (or other butterfly species) are the ultimate witnesses or authorities.

Yes, but how can the public find out how well the monarch is
doing?  They must rely on the monarch scientists / conservationists
to tell them the results of the monarch population measurements that 
have been conducted at the overwintering sites in Mexico.  These                                                                             
measurements have been  carried out annually since 1978, so 25 years                                                                                         
worth of monarch census data is available. But what monarch                                                                                                  
scientist / conservationist has ever been willing to share this                                                                                                  
information with the public? Answer: None of them have.

You can visit Dr. Brower's Monarch Santuary Foundation website,
or Dr. Chip Taylor's Monarch Watch website or the Michoacan
Reforestation Project website, Journey North website, etc. and
find little or only fragmentary census data results posted. So the public                                                                                      
is left in the dark about how well the monarch is doing even though
the public ultimately pays for this census work.  

Likewise, how can the public find out the condition of the forests
where the monarchs overwinter? Once again they must rely on the
monarch scientists / conservationists to tell them and to show them
photos.  But what monarch scientist / conservationist has ever been
willing to share the key photos they have of the forests (SW facing
slopes) where the monarchs overwinter? Answer: None of them have.
They show lots and lots of photos of forest clearings due to logging
or forest fires, http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chivati.JPG 
but these clearings are nearly all on north slopes which the monarchs                                                                                               
don't use or on slopes below the altitude where the monarchs 
overwinter. So the public almost never gets to see pictures of the                                                                                                   
condition of the forest on the SW facing slopes where the monarchs
actually cluster.

Finally, how can the public find out about water and flower nectar 
resources the butterflies use while in Mexico? Once again they must rely                                                                                                  
on the monarch scientists / conservationists to tell them and to show                                                                                          
them photos.  But what monarch scientist / conservationist has ever been
willing to share the key photos they have that indicate that the chief
water /bflower nectar sources are found (ironically) on ground where the                                                                                             
forest has been cleared for human uses such as agriculture and road 
building?  Answer: None of them have.

I have done a few things here and there to try and correct the situation.
Like I put together this graph of the monarch census data going back to
1985: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/mexicopop.jpg The graph is
still incomplete and has some data gaps that need to be filled in, but                                                                                                
it's a start and it shows the public the monarch in not headed down                                                                                                          
the path to extinction as they so often hear from the conservation 
societies http://www.saber.net/~monarch/wwf.jpg  And rather than                                                                                           
misleading the public by showing them only forest clearings like this
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/kurt1.JPG  below the altitude where the                                                                                    
monarchs overwinter, I show them the outstanding condition of the                                                                                                  
forest higher up on the SW slopes where the butterflies actually 
overwinter: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chincuadis.JPG
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/elrosariodis.jpg  With regard to water
resources, I show the public that the patches of forest that have been
logged to grow corn also provide moist ground for the butterflies to
obtain drinking water http://www.saber.net/~monarch/meadow.JPG
And I show that monarchs use roads that humans have built through
the forest as a pathway down to these water sources: 
http://www.saber.net/~monarch/monarchhighway.jpg
Lastly, whereas the conservationists constantly speculate about
how forest thinning is probably correlated with monarch mortality                                                                                                          
during snowstorms and freezes http://www.saber.net/~monarch/wwf.jpg
I show an actual photo taken after the worst-ever die off in Jan. 2002,                                                                                                    
that shows butterfly mortality was high, ironically, where the forest                                                                                      
cover was very dense http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chincuaintact.jpg

My input on all this tend to anger the monarch scientists / conservationists.
Privately they call me a "spoiler" and publicly some call me a "conspiracy
theorist"  "oddball"  "laughing stock" and such.

Paul Cherubini

 
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