Fw: Re: [SoWestLep] 2005 prospects for S. Calif. and NW Arizona--especially P. indra

Sun Jan 23 13:23:10 EST 2005

Ken,

Kenneth E Davenport wrote:

>As Todd pointed out, we still need more January and February rainfall to bring out full flights
>

Agreed. As I said "...(and expected spring) rains".

> and be sure this will indeed be a banner year. 
>

Again, this depends on your definition of a "banner" year. If we are now 
leaving the drought that has plagued Arizona for years, and are now 
entering a "normal" non-drought period, then it may take a few years to 
reach the carrying capacity, in which case next year (or the year after) 
may be the so called banner year in terms of numbers of flying adults. 
The timing of the banner year (which may be this year for some 
multivoltine species) will depend on how many broods/year a species has 
and the fertility of the female.

> As Patrick pointed out, desert rainfall varies widely over
>the deserts.  
>

Yes, but we are not talking about one storm rainfall which does vary 
widely over the desert, as you mentioned. I beleive we are discussing a 
drought that has gripped a widespread geographic area (the southwest) 
for many years which has affected all areas, including I believe (since 
I am not familiar with the places you mention) Mescal Ridge and 
Providence Mountains; and a wet winter that has affected the same large 
geographic area, including possibly both Mescal Ridge and Providence 
Mountains (wherever they are).

>Local conditions in California, southern Nevada and Arizona
>will determine what happens where.  Portions of the desert could be very
>good, others poor.  I often take scouting trips or ask local experts to
>inform me of such local conditions.  It could rain heavily on Mescal
>Ridge of Interstate 15 and be dry in the Providence Mountains.
>        As far as Stan's "It seems we really should wait until the end of
>next year" comment:  The other possibility is "that he who hesitates is
>lost."  I also don't need to do a scientific study to PROVE that good
>rainfall in the deserts means good flights.  
>

I am _not_ saying "don't collect this year - wait until next year".  
What I am suggesting is that before proclaiming this year to be the so 
called "banner" year, wait until the end of next year's collecting 
experience and then judge whether this year or next year is the banner 
year. It appears which year is the banner year will be species specific. 
Nor am I suggesting a scientific study to prove good desert rainfalls 
mean good flights. We all know that. The question is, will this year or 
next year be the so called "banner" year (assuming we are entering a so 
called "normal" non-drought period in the southwest).

>I have 45 years of
>collecting experience and I have definitely learned something from it. 
>  
>

You definitely have more collecting experience than me. I hope I am not 
coming across as questioning your experience and judgment.

>Anyone who has seen my collection knows I have had very very few
>unsuccessful trips.  If next winter has good rains, it may indeed be
>better than 2005...but if not those pupae are likely to forego emergence
>again and those who wait will lose out.
>  
>

Again, I am not suggesting to wait in the sense of "not collect". Just 
wait until next year's experience before saying which year was the 
banner year for a species. This may come across as picking hairs because 
if there are good flights this year we will all be happy, but will this 
year be the so called "banner" year?
Stan

>Wayne, Ken, Brian, etc.
>
>whaleywa wrote:
>
>  
>
>>I will be shocked if this is not a banner year for SW butterflies.  
>>
>> 
>>
>>    
>>
>
>I think there is a greater likelihood that multivoltine (rather than 
>univoltine) species will have large populations at the end of their 
>respective breeding season this year. Whether _this_ year is the banner 
>year might be questionable. While this year may be better than previous 
>years that were draught years, it may be next year that is the banner 
>year for this winter's (and expected spring) rains.
>
>In other words, before proclaiming this year to be a banner year after 
>the butterfly season ends, it seems we really need to wait until the end 
>of next year. Also, I think now is the time, before the collecting 
>season starts and claims are made of how abundant species are, to define 
>the _desert_.  Ken, et al, is it an area that receives a specified 
>minimum annual rainfall, one of the named biomes, or what?  Since I live 
>in Arizona I will be collecting in Arizona, and so what areas would you 
>identify as a "desert" for the purposes of this seasons collecting?
>Stan
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