Global temperature could drop 1.5 degrees C (3 degrees F) by 2020

[Stan Gorodenski]

Interesting article, but I have serious doubts of its accuracy. It is 
rather interesting the author just says at the end he is an 
'astronomer.' An astronomer from where? Every article I read in Sky & 
Telescope, for example, at the end states what institution the author is 
conducting his/her research, and the research papers in Science clearly 
state the institutions the authors are from, but not in this article. I 
looked up on the internet the book referenced at the end and it says he 
is a "BBC journalist." No where does it say he say he is an 
'astronomer.' It appears Whitehouse may be exaggerating his credentials 
(perhaps even as some kind of degree in or related to astronomy) to come 
across as a credible 'current' research Solar Astronomer.

The scientific accuracy of the article is highly in doubt. It begins 
with the statement
"Something is happening to our Sun. It has to do with sunspots, or 
rather the activity cycle their coming and going signifies. After a 
period of exceptionally high activity in the 20th century, our Sun has 
suddenly gone exceptionally quiet. Months have passed with no spots 
visible on its disc. We are at the end of one cycle of activity and 
astronomers are waiting for the sunspots to return and mark the start of 
the next, the so-called cycle 24. They have been waiting for a while now 
with no sign it's on its way any time soon".

However, I belong to a discussion group called Solar-Alpo. The members 
observe all aspects of the sun, including sunspots. For the past two 
years they continually talk about sun spots they have observed. With 
respect to the current absence of sunspots here are two exchanges.
November 30th:
"Hello! This is only the first year and first solar
cycle I have been observing the sun. Is this extended
dearth of spots normal for solar minimums or are we
witnessing a particularly sparse minimum?"
December 1st response:
"I've followed two previous minima. This is perfectly normal."

On the same day, December 1st, someone posted the following message
"On the eastern side of the southern hemisphere a new spot group has 
formed with two distinct spots and at least one other smaller one. I 
took whole disk photos, but did not have time to process or take 
close-up photos today."

And then on December 6th:
"I just observed a new, distinct sunspot group in the central sun, 
northern hemisphere. It is also visible at the SOHO web site. "

Whitehouse is obviously spreading false information either for private 
gain or because global warming doesn't fit with his _belief_ system, and 
he is not a _real_ solar astronomer.

The other thing that places doubt on the scientific accuracy of the 
article is that it cites the Russian Academy of Sciences. Russian 
scientists have already established a track record of cranking out false 
science to support Lysenkoism during Stalin's reign, and to get money 
for research. In current Russia Putin has already made remarks publicly 
to the effect that global warming may not be so bad because it will make 
Russia warmer. Russia is also a developing economy. Could some Russian 
scientists under Putin be saying things they know are not true or an 
exaggeration to gain the favor of the leadership, as they did under Stalin?

Finally, I think knowing whether what you read and hear is the truth has 
always been a problem, but I think the internet has made the problem 
even worse. It is so easy for a blogger or anyone else to create a web 
site and spread false information to support their agenda, or to create 
a so called 'newspaper' that is really a rag for an agenda. For example, 
This appeared in Science (a publication of the American Association for 
the Advancement of Science) regarding global warming. After reading it 
you can appreciate how easy it might be to be taken in by false information.
Stan

*Volume 318, Number 5853, Issue of 16 November 2007*
Global warming is actually caused by growing numbers of CO_2 -emitting 
bacteria on the sea floor, says a study published online on 3 November 
in the /Journal of Geoclimatic Studies/. "Those who subscribe to the 
[human-caused climate change] theory have overlooked the primary source" 
of CO_2 emissions, write Daniel Klein and colleagues at the University 
of Arizona in Tucson.

The problem is that Klein and his team don't exist. Neither does their 
Department of Climatology; Okinawa University, where the journal is 
purportedly published; or its editor, OU climatologist Hiroko Takebe.

It's a hoax designed "to expose the credulity and scientific illiteracy 
of … 'climate skeptics,' " according to "Mark Cox," the self-described 
real author of the article. Cox says several anti-global warming Web 
sites cited the paper but hastily erased their coverage when the hoax 
was revealed. /Science/ got an e-mail from Cox after speaking with David 
Thorpe, a U.K.-based science journalist and Web site designer. Thorpe 
says he created the site but denies writing the article.

The paper reports that algal blooms have gradually killed off 
"brachiopod molluscs of the genus /Tetrarhynchia/" and other organisms 
that prey on CO_2 -producing bacteria, allowing bacteria populations to 
explode. The paper has "some clever ideas," says geochemist Steven 
D'Hondt of the University of Rhode Island in Kingston, but "some fairly 
fundamental flaws," such as meaningless equations. He also notes that 
brachiopods and mollusks are two different phyla.




Paul Cherubini wrote:

>British lepidopterists have been claiming the ranges of 
>some UK butterflies have been expanding further northward 
>in recent years. 
>
>Now a British news organization reports why we may
>be entering a period of Global cooling:
>
>http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article3223603.ece
>Dec. 5, 2007
>
>Excerpts:
>
>"Our Sun has suddenly gone exceptionally quiet.
>Months have passed with no spots visible on its disc."
>
>"Between 1645 and 1715 sunspots were rare. It was also
>a time when the Earth's northern hemisphere chilled dramatically."
>
>"The past decade has been warmer than previous ones. It
>is the result of a rapid increase in global temperature between
>1978 and 1998. Since then average temperatures have held at
>a high, though steady, level. Many computer climate projections
>suggest that the global temperatures will start to rise again in a
>few years. But those projections do not take into account the
>change in the Sun's behaviour. The tardiness of cycle 24
>indicates that we might be entering a period of low solar
>activity that may counteract man-made greenhouse temperature
>increases. Some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences
>say we may be at the start of a period like that seen between
>1790 and 1820, a minor decline in solar activity called the Dalton
>Minimum. They estimate that the Sun's reduced activity may
>cause a global temperature drop of 1.5C by 2020. This is larger
>than most sensible predictions of man-made global warming
>over this period."
>
>Paul Cherubini
>El Dorado, Calif.
>
> 
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