Global temperature could drop 1.5 degrees C (3 degrees F) by 2020

[Stan Gorodenski]

To further drive home the point that Whitehouse has really exaggerated 
the absence of sun spots, here is a post in Solar-ALPO today.
Stan

First Message:
"There is a new (I believe) spot in the northern hemisphere near the 
western limb. I suspect it will rotate out of view in a couple of days."
Response:
"Yep- I saw it at 18:02UT December 8, 5 spots within the group. The 
other group gained more spots, now 23, making the sun more spottier than 
I have seen in some time."


Stan Gorodenski wrote:

> Interesting article, but I have serious doubts of its accuracy. It is 
> rather interesting the author just says at the end he is an 
> 'astronomer.' An astronomer from where? Every article I read in Sky & 
> Telescope, for example, at the end states what institution the author 
> is conducting his/her research, and the research papers in Science 
> clearly state the institutions the authors are from, but not in this 
> article. I looked up on the internet the book referenced at the end 
> and it says he is a "BBC journalist." No where does it say he say he 
> is an 'astronomer.' It appears Whitehouse may be exaggerating his 
> credentials (perhaps even as some kind of degree in or related to 
> astronomy) to come across as a credible 'current' research Solar 
> Astronomer.
>
> The scientific accuracy of the article is highly in doubt. It begins 
> with the statement
> "Something is happening to our Sun. It has to do with sunspots, or 
> rather the activity cycle their coming and going signifies. After a 
> period of exceptionally high activity in the 20th century, our Sun has 
> suddenly gone exceptionally quiet. Months have passed with no spots 
> visible on its disc. We are at the end of one cycle of activity and 
> astronomers are waiting for the sunspots to return and mark the start 
> of the next, the so-called cycle 24. They have been waiting for a 
> while now with no sign it's on its way any time soon".
>
> However, I belong to a discussion group called Solar-Alpo. The members 
> observe all aspects of the sun, including sunspots. For the past two 
> years they continually talk about sun spots they have observed. With 
> respect to the current absence of sunspots here are two exchanges.
> November 30th:
> "Hello! This is only the first year and first solar
> cycle I have been observing the sun. Is this extended
> dearth of spots normal for solar minimums or are we
> witnessing a particularly sparse minimum?"
> December 1st response:
> "I've followed two previous minima. This is perfectly normal."
>
> On the same day, December 1st, someone posted the following message
> "On the eastern side of the southern hemisphere a new spot group has 
> formed with two distinct spots and at least one other smaller one. I 
> took whole disk photos, but did not have time to process or take 
> close-up photos today."
>
> And then on December 6th:
> "I just observed a new, distinct sunspot group in the central sun, 
> northern hemisphere. It is also visible at the SOHO web site. "
>
> Whitehouse is obviously spreading false information either for private 
> gain or because global warming doesn't fit with his _belief_ system, 
> and he is not a _real_ solar astronomer.
>
> The other thing that places doubt on the scientific accuracy of the 
> article is that it cites the Russian Academy of Sciences. Russian 
> scientists have already established a track record of cranking out 
> false science to support Lysenkoism during Stalin's reign, and to get 
> money for research. In current Russia Putin has already made remarks 
> publicly to the effect that global warming may not be so bad because 
> it will make Russia warmer. Russia is also a developing economy. Could 
> some Russian scientists under Putin be saying things they know are not 
> true or an exaggeration to gain the favor of the leadership, as they 
> did under Stalin?
>
> Finally, I think knowing whether what you read and hear is the truth 
> has always been a problem, but I think the internet has made the 
> problem even worse. It is so easy for a blogger or anyone else to 
> create a web site and spread false information to support their 
> agenda, or to create a so called 'newspaper' that is really a rag for 
> an agenda. For example, This appeared in Science (a publication of the 
> American Association for the Advancement of Science) regarding global 
> warming. After reading it you can appreciate how easy it might be to 
> be taken in by false information.
> Stan
>
> *Volume 318, Number 5853, Issue of 16 November 2007*
> Global warming is actually caused by growing numbers of CO_2 -emitting 
> bacteria on the sea floor, says a study published online on 3 November 
> in the /Journal of Geoclimatic Studies/. "Those who subscribe to the 
> [human-caused climate change] theory have overlooked the primary 
> source" of CO_2 emissions, write Daniel Klein and colleagues at the 
> University of Arizona in Tucson.
>
> The problem is that Klein and his team don't exist. Neither does their 
> Department of Climatology; Okinawa University, where the journal is 
> purportedly published; or its editor, OU climatologist Hiroko Takebe.
>
> It's a hoax designed "to expose the credulity and scientific 
> illiteracy of … 'climate skeptics,' " according to "Mark Cox," the 
> self-described real author of the article. Cox says several 
> anti-global warming Web sites cited the paper but hastily erased their 
> coverage when the hoax was revealed. /Science/ got an e-mail from Cox 
> after speaking with David Thorpe, a U.K.-based science journalist and 
> Web site designer. Thorpe says he created the site but denies writing 
> the article.
>
> The paper reports that algal blooms have gradually killed off 
> "brachiopod molluscs of the genus /Tetrarhynchia/" and other organisms 
> that prey on CO_2 -producing bacteria, allowing bacteria populations 
> to explode. The paper has "some clever ideas," says geochemist Steven 
> D'Hondt of the University of Rhode Island in Kingston, but "some 
> fairly fundamental flaws," such as meaningless equations. He also 
> notes that brachiopods and mollusks are two different phyla.
>
>
>
>
> Paul Cherubini wrote:
>
>> British lepidopterists have been claiming the ranges of some UK 
>> butterflies have been expanding further northward in recent years.
>> Now a British news organization reports why we may
>> be entering a period of Global cooling:
>>
>> http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article3223603.ece
>> Dec. 5, 2007
>>
>> Excerpts:
>>
>> "Our Sun has suddenly gone exceptionally quiet.
>> Months have passed with no spots visible on its disc."
>>
>> "Between 1645 and 1715 sunspots were rare. It was also
>> a time when the Earth's northern hemisphere chilled dramatically."
>>
>> "The past decade has been warmer than previous ones. It
>> is the result of a rapid increase in global temperature between
>> 1978 and 1998. Since then average temperatures have held at
>> a high, though steady, level. Many computer climate projections
>> suggest that the global temperatures will start to rise again in a
>> few years. But those projections do not take into account the
>> change in the Sun's behaviour. The tardiness of cycle 24
>> indicates that we might be entering a period of low solar
>> activity that may counteract man-made greenhouse temperature
>> increases. Some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences
>> say we may be at the start of a period like that seen between
>> 1790 and 1820, a minor decline in solar activity called the Dalton
>> Minimum. They estimate that the Sun's reduced activity may
>> cause a global temperature drop of 1.5C by 2020. This is larger
>> than most sensible predictions of man-made global warming
>> over this period."
>>
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>
>>
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