Monarch article in Ft Worth Star-Telegram

jim taylor drivingiron at bellsouth.net
Sat Mar 20 03:27:22 EDT 2010


Paul:

We all knew that would happen. Extrapolating the rate at which monarchs have 
been lost over the years, I estimate that next year the population will 
be -14 bugs.

Jim Taylor

--------------------------------------------------
From: "Paul Cherubini" <monarch at saber.net>
Sent: Friday, March 19, 2010 3:49 PM
To: "Leps-L" <LEPS-L at lists.yale.edu>
Subject: Re: Monarch article in Ft Worth Star-Telegram

>> Monarch butterflies, hit hard by strong storms at their winter home in
>> Mexico, have dwindled to their lowest population levels in decades
>
> There were numerous worrisome articles like that back in 2002 too after
> a severe mortality event in January and a prediction from Dr. Chip Taylor
> that it might take the monarchs "more than one year" to rebound:
>
> http://www.MonarchWatch.org/news/021102.html
> "Unfortunately, it appears that the conditions (i.e., soil moisture, 
> predators,
> etc.) in Texas and the Midwest will not be as favorable this coming 
> breeding
> season. If the population is as low or lower than that of last spring, it 
> could
> take the monarchs more than one season to rebound from the freeze of 
> 2002."
>
> However, normal numbers of monarchs returned to the Sanctuaries
> 10 months later (in the fall of 2002):
> http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/storm.jpg
>
> About 4 weeks ago (Feb. 22) I sent a private email to Alex Grkovich
> predicting the Monarch Scientific Establishment would make sure a bunch of
> worrisome articles like those that appeared in 2002 would hit national
> newspapers "within 2-4 weeks". Today is March 19 so my prediction
> was correct.  See below:
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Date:  Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:00:11 -0800
> From: Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net>
> To:  Alex Grkovich <agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com>
>
> Yep within 2-4 weeks we will see a repeat of this:
>
> February 12, 2002
> Storm in Mexico Devastates Monarch Butterfly Colonies
> By CAROL KAESUK YOON
> http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/12/science/12BUTT.html
>
> February 12, 2002 07:34 PM ET
> Mexico Butterfly Deaths May Hit Future Migrations
> By Pav Jordan
> http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=sciencenews&StoryID=591531
>
> Wednesday, 13 February, 2002, 12:24 GMT
> Mass butterfly deaths after storm
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1818000/1818158.stm
>
> Millions of butterflies killed by freak storm
> By Ronald Buchanan in Mexico City
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/02/13/
> wbutt13.xml&sSheet=/news/2002/02/13/ixworld.html
>
> February 13, 2002
> Monarch Butterflies Dying in Mexico
> By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
> http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Mexico-Monarch-Mystery.html
>
> February 14, 2002
> Mass Monarch Butterfly Die-Off Likely the Result of Deforestation and Lack
> of Tree Cover, WWF Says World Wildlife Fund
> http://www.worldwildlife.org/news/headline.cfm?newsid=327
>
>
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