[Leps-l] Butterflies and climate change

[Paul Cherubini]

On Aug 23, 2012, at 2:10 PM, David Gregg wrote:

> the data indicate northern species moving north out of
> Mass. and southern species moving north into Mass.
> They say this is consistent with warming climate and
> therefore it may be evidence of climate change.

But it's nothing new because these swings in warming and
cooling over 20-30 year periods have happened before
in Massachusetts:
http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/maann.jpg

> To Paul's point, I don't agree that monthly average
> temperature change in Mass. is relevant. We know that in
> wildlife biology range shifts can be related to average
> temperature but also minimum winter temps, minimum
> frost free days (not max temp), snow pack


If you look at minimum winter temps, minimum frost free days
(not max temp), snow pack, etc. you will see the same
swings in warming and cooling over 20-30 year periods.

So I don't see what these authors have "discovered". Example:
During the cooling period of 1950-1970 in Massachusetts
http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/maann.jpg
some scientists could have claimed the warm-climate-adapted
butterfly species have shrunk by 1,000 percent while the
cold-climate-adapted species might have grown by a large
amount.  Would they then be justified in running to the
New York TImes and saying: "look reporters, we just
discovered evidence of global climate change - the
globe is cooling most likely due to human induced cooling.
Please give us more grant money to monitor and model future
cooling which will help society adapt to the cooling."

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.