[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

[MexicoDoug]

"Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
migrations are possible"

I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the monarch 
migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of the 
natural world.

But is this intended to be a scientific statement?  If so, let's review 
a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on scientific thinking:

"Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether there is any 
independent evidence for the causality assumed in an argument."
"Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that whatever 
has not been proven false must be true (and vice versa)."

Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then (Sagan, 
on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)

"Don't give credence to an argument from adverse consequences."

And speaking for myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
Don't get too attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
Don't let an argument go down the slippery slope of jumping to the 
extreme (this is also a subset of the excluded middle)."
Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in rhetorical 
trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."

I do respect all the different points of view on the monarch migration 
miracle; and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited 
discussion.  We should encourage all efforts at quantification on all 
sides IMO, and it is important not to get those of us who support the 
fun and satisfaction of further research not to be caricatured as 
alarmists, since the net effect is a loss of credibility to 
Lepidopterists in general.  (This also applies,. Sagan again):

"Don't be selective in making observations (enumerating favorable 
circumstances): count the misses as well as the hits."

Best wishes
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: Roger Kuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>
To: Leps List <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List 
<leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17 am
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
migrations are possible, so concern about migrating Monarch populations 
is reasonable and something that needs to be tracked closely.
 
Roger Kuhlman
Ann Arbor, Michigan
 

Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28 -0800
From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
To: monarch at saber.net; TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

"Send money"...
 
Alex



  From: Paul Cherubini &lt;monarch at saber.net&gt;
 To: TILS &lt;TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com&gt;
Cc: Leps-L &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;
 Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 10:31 PM
 Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

                           Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip 
Taylor's fairly recent
(Nov. 17, 2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
F. Hess Lecture at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM) in
Toronto, Canada:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU

If you want to view the whole 57 minute presentation
you can see it here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.


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