[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Wed Feb 13 11:22:38 EST 2013

While collecting and rearing monarch eggs and larvae and then tagging and releasing adults is a minuscule part of the population dynamics of the monarch, it certainly creates noise that affects research that is legitimately trying to understand the monarch migration issue as available nectaries and larval food-plants get fewer and farther between.   I understand that I am part of the problem.  I have turned my 4-year old granddaughter onto observing and rearing monarch larvae but will try to get her to just observe them in the wild rather than bother them with poorly hydrated milkweed on an overheated porch so that they emerge from the chrysalis with deformed wings. ...
Having observed the Monterey enclave of monarchs I can see that one good cataclysmic event might destroy the whole brood.  How many other broods are there in CA?  How is the research on cataclysmic events going in California?  Any more predictable in their occurrence and severity?  The severity of winter events in Mexico is also an unpredictable phenomenon particularly with the global warming potential for creating more severe variability in weather.  Clearly further research is needed to follow these phenomena but at the moment they are one popular example of a potentially endangered population which we are observing intensely(?) before it becomes endangered.  It has become an educational tool.  Almost every child knows the monarch story.   I have come upon K-12 classroom groups visiting a local nature reserve scouring the abundant milkweed for monarch larvae.  My 4-year old granddaughter can actually find 1st instar larvae in her enthusiasm.  Luckily that enthusiasm is soon turned into another direction and plenty of monarchs are surviving.
We need to tell the story of the monarch for its current inherent interest to the public but not get too fanatical about conserving it.  There are many more reasons for conserving local nectaries other than for the monarch.  Let the monarch be part of an interesting story and reason for conserving our 'wild' fields or turning antiquated 'inane' golf courses back into land conservancies.  My dad got his exercise with golf but I do it with butterfly walks.   Encouraging butterfly-walks and turning golfers and golf-links (or there rough buffer zones) into butterfly-walkers and -space is I think a more workable objective than scaring people about monarch-extinctions about which, for the most part, I have found most adults do not care a whit.  But more adults want something to do with their kids to while away the summers and weekends.  Butterfly-walks are the thing that occurs to me.   Teaching kids to be butterfly-walkers rather than golfers could create a significant future electorate that ends up producing more conservation land to be shared with our migrating monarchs.

Joe
-·.  .· ·.  .><((((º>·.  .· ·.  .><((((º>·.  .· ·.  .><((((º> .··.· >=-       =º}}}}}><
Joseph G. Kunkel, Research Professor
Center for Land-Sea Interactions
Marine Science Center
University of New England
11 Hills Beach Road
Biddeford ME 04005
joe at bio.umass.edu

On Feb 13, 2013, at 2:45 AM, MexicoDoug wrote:

> "Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
> migrations are possible"
> 
> I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the monarch 
> migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of the 
> natural world.
> 
> But is this intended to be a scientific statement?  If so, let's review 
> a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on scientific thinking:
> 
> "Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether there is any 
> independent evidence for the causality assumed in an argument."
> "Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that whatever 
> has not been proven false must be true (and vice versa)."
> 
> Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then (Sagan, 
> on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)
> 
> "Don't give credence to an argument from adverse consequences."
> 
> And speaking for myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
> Don't get too attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
> Don't let an argument go down the slippery slope of jumping to the 
> extreme (this is also a subset of the excluded middle)."
> Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in rhetorical 
> trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."
> 
> I do respect all the different points of view on the monarch migration 
> miracle; and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited 
> discussion.  We should encourage all efforts at quantification on all 
> sides IMO, and it is important not to get those of us who support the 
> fun and satisfaction of further research not to be caricatured as 
> alarmists, since the net effect is a loss of credibility to 
> Lepidopterists in general.  (This also applies,. Sagan again):
> 
> "Don't be selective in making observations (enumerating favorable 
> circumstances): count the misses as well as the hits."
> 
> Best wishes
> Doug
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Roger Kuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>
> To: Leps List <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List 
> <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
> Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17 am
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> 
> Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
> migrations are possible, so concern about migrating Monarch populations 
> is reasonable and something that needs to be tracked closely.
>  
> Roger Kuhlman
> Ann Arbor, Michigan
>  
> 
> Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28 -0800
> From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
> To: monarch at saber.net; TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
> CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> 
> "Send money"...
>  
> Alex
> 
> 
> 
>  From: Paul Cherubini &lt;monarch at saber.net&gt;
> To: TILS &lt;TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com&gt;
> Cc: Leps-L &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;
> Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 10:31 PM
> Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
> 
>                           Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip 
> Taylor's fairly recent
> (Nov. 17, 2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
> F. Hess Lecture at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM) in
> Toronto, Canada:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU
> 
> If you want to view the whole 57 minute presentation
> you can see it here:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0
> 
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
> 
> 
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