[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Wed Feb 13 12:08:33 EST 2013

Dear Doug,

Thank you for presenting a reasoning voice.

It is reasonable to think that it is "possible" for anything to go  
extinct.  Is it thus reasonable that we should monitor  "everything?"  Or maybe 
just keystone species and habitats (since  "everything" might be a tad too 
much).

Bob  Patterson
12601 Buckingham Drive
Bowie, Maryland 20715
(301) - 262-2459  pm. hours
_Moth Photographers  Group Website_ 
(http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Plates.shtml) 
_My  Personal Moths Website_ 
(http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Files1/Live/BP/BPsite/identified.shtml) 

In a message dated 2/13/2013 2:46:21 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
mexicodoug at aol.com writes:

"Clearly  the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
migrations are  possible"

I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the  monarch 
migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of  the 
natural world.

But is this intended to be a scientific  statement?  If so, let's review 
a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on  scientific thinking:

"Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether  there is any 
independent evidence for the causality assumed in an  argument."
"Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that  whatever 
has not been proven false must be true (and vice  versa)."

Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then  (Sagan, 
on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)

"Don't give  credence to an argument from adverse consequences."

And speaking for  myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
Don't get too attached to a  hypothesis just because it's yours.
Don't let an argument go down the  slippery slope of jumping to the 
extreme (this is also a subset of the  excluded middle)."
Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in  rhetorical 
trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."

I do  respect all the different points of view on the monarch migration 
miracle;  and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited 
discussion.  We  should encourage all efforts at quantification on all 
sides IMO, and it is  important not to get those of us who support the 
fun and satisfaction of  further research not to be caricatured as 
alarmists, since the net effect  is a loss of credibility to 
Lepidopterists in general.  (This also  applies,. Sagan again):

"Don't be selective in making observations  (enumerating favorable 
circumstances): count the misses as well as the  hits."

Best wishes
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: Roger  Kuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>
To: Leps List  <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List  
<leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17  am
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Clearly the  extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch 
migrations are  possible, so concern about migrating Monarch populations 
is reasonable and  something that needs to be tracked closely.

Roger Kuhlman
Ann  Arbor, Michigan

Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28  -0800
From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
To: monarch at saber.net;  TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
Subject: Re:  [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

"Send  money"...

Alex

From: Paul Cherubini  &lt;monarch at saber.net&gt;
To: TILS  &lt;TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com&gt;
Cc: Leps-L  &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013  10:31 PM
Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip 
Taylor's fairly recent
(Nov. 17,  2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
F. Hess Lecture at the Royal  Ontario Museum (ROM) in
Toronto,  Canada:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU

If you want to  view the whole 57 minute presentation
you can see it  here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0

Paul  Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.

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