[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Wed Feb 13 17:14:03 EST 2013

Thanks Bill, and hello all,

With this in mind, IMO, as a unique and majestic phenomenon it is our
responsibility as students of promoting rich and sustainable
biodiversity and the continued appreciation of nature to actively
promote its conservation.  Erring on the side of caution seems a
perfectly reasonable manner to exercise this care.

Relating to monitoring keystone species as indicators for the otherwise
too complex world:

Where I think we are getting into trouble is that in selecting and
generalizing any unwitting indicator of health, whether it be
ecological, cardiological or what you please, the dangers of
predicating arguments, whether scientific in essence, philosophical,
moral by someone's compass, or essentially evangelical, can be
distractions as well as helpful if not backed up solid science.  It
only invites skeptics who are not intimately familiar with the
situation to categorize it into the "Chicken Little - The sky is
falling", "The boy who cried wolf one time too many", and "The end of
the world is at hand, Armageddon hath arrived" category.

I think this is the wrong approach for responsible ecologists.  It
resorts to using the same tactics the truly offensive
anti-environmental preachers use (none of whom post to this list), by
placing scientific credibility into question.  In doing that, we are
completely disarmed.  Once credibility is questioned it is very
difficult and frequently impossible to recover it.  Lepidopterists
might be better served in general by sticking to the science and not
inventing environmental indicators of questionable general utility
which only serves to perpetuate the standoff while real specific issues
are faced daily in terms of habitat encroachment for thousands of
species in a world that will have 8 billion humans competing for
resources in another blink of the eye.

Unfortunately, even statements like mine above can be twisted and
selectively quoted out of context when someone who cares less about
truth and only about giving winning rhetoric gets involved.  To that,
we are at a disadvantage, but it isn't as bleak in many areas as more
of a mentality of natural conservation is evident every day.  Not
talking about regulations and government ... I'm referring to the
general level of appreciation of having nature to retreat into from our
urban sprawl that produces mountains of garbage ;-)

One very positive effect of the Monarch conservation community has been
a general increased awareness of many people who otherwise would never
had known about it.  It, and exquisite butterflies in general, do
provide a very visible reminder of the fragility of the world when we
can touch, tag, watch videos and increase habitat, etc.  I think with
the passage of time this will prove to be the legacy of the use of
Monarchs as poster children for ecological inclined people.  If we
handle it this way, in my opinion, the potential for building consensus
is much greater, as is the ability to use it as a true teaching
laboratory for training future generations of scientists in scientific
methodology.  I have a higher tolerance for scientifically minded
skeptics than most because I don't see anything wrong with questioning
hypotheses.  As a matter of fact, I see everything wrong with
suppressing the scientifically minded opposition's ideas since the
uninformed usually picks up on this before understanding what everyone
is arguing about and tend to develop a soft spot for the suppressed...

Kindest wishes
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: BPatter789 <BPatter789 at aol.com>
To: mexicodoug <mexicodoug at aol.com>; rkuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>;
leps-l <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; leps-l <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 12:08 pm
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Dear Doug,

Thank you for presenting a reasoning voice.

It is reasonable to think that it is "possible" for anything to go
extinct.  Is it thus reasonable that we should monitor "everything?" 
Or maybe just keystone species and habitats (since "everything" might
be a tad too much).

Bob Patterson
12601 Buckingham Drive
Bowie, Maryland 20715
(301) - 262-2459 pm. hours
Moth Photographers Group Website
My Personal Moths Website

In a message dated 2/13/2013 2:46:21 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
mexicodoug at aol.com writes:
"Clearly   the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch
migrations are   possible"

I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the   monarch
migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of
the
natural world.

But is this intended to be a scientific   statement?  If so, let's
review
a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on   scientific thinking:

"Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether   there is any
independent evidence for the causality assumed in an   argument."
"Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that
whatever
has not been proven false must be true (and vice   versa)."

Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then   (Sagan,
on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)

"Don't give   credence to an argument from adverse consequences."

And speaking for   myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
Don't get too attached to a   hypothesis just because it's yours.
Don't let an argument go down the   slippery slope of jumping to the
extreme (this is also a subset of the   excluded middle)."
Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in   rhetorical
trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."

I do   respect all the different points of view on the monarch
migration
miracle;   and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited
discussion.  We   should encourage all efforts at quantification on all
sides IMO, and it is   important not to get those of us who support the
fun and satisfaction of   further research not to be caricatured as
alarmists, since the net effect   is a loss of credibility to
Lepidopterists in general.  (This also   applies,. Sagan again):

"Don't be selective in making observations   (enumerating favorable
circumstances): count the misses as well as the   hits."

Best wishes
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: Roger   Kuhlman &lt;rkuhlman at hotmail.com&gt;
To: Leps List   &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;; Leps List
&lt;leps-l at lists.yale.edu&gt;
Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17   am
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Clearly the   extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch
migrations are   possible, so concern about migrating Monarch
populations
is reasonable and   something that needs to be tracked closely.

Roger Kuhlman
Ann   Arbor, Michigan

Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28   -0800
From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
To: monarch at saber.net;   TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
Subject: Re:   [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

"Send   money"...

Alex

  From: Paul Cherubini   &lt;monarch at saber.net&gt;
To: TILS   &lt;TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com&gt;
Cc: Leps-L   &lt;leps-l at mailman.yale.edu&gt;
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013   10:31 PM
Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

                               Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip
Taylor's fairly recent
(Nov. 17,   2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
F. Hess Lecture at the Royal   Ontario Museum (ROM) in
Toronto,   Canada:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU

If you want to   view the whole 57 minute presentation
you can see it   here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0

Paul   Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.

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