[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
Roger Kuhlman
rkuhlman at hotmail.com
Thu Feb 14 22:59:46 EST 2013
What the heck is a scientific statement? The statement that I made was to point out that both eastern and western migrating Monarch populations are subject to significant possibilities of extinction for the reasons I specified. If you think that is not true, fine. Roger Kuhlman
> To: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> From: mexicodoug at aol.com
> Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2013 17:14:03 -0500
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> Thanks Bill, and hello all,
>
> With this in mind, IMO, as a unique and majestic phenomenon it is our
> responsibility as students of promoting rich and sustainable
> biodiversity and the continued appreciation of nature to actively
> promote its conservation. Erring on the side of caution seems a
> perfectly reasonable manner to exercise this care.
>
> Relating to monitoring keystone species as indicators for the otherwise
> too complex world:
>
> Where I think we are getting into trouble is that in selecting and
> generalizing any unwitting indicator of health, whether it be
> ecological, cardiological or what you please, the dangers of
> predicating arguments, whether scientific in essence, philosophical,
> moral by someone's compass, or essentially evangelical, can be
> distractions as well as helpful if not backed up solid science. It
> only invites skeptics who are not intimately familiar with the
> situation to categorize it into the "Chicken Little - The sky is
> falling", "The boy who cried wolf one time too many", and "The end of
> the world is at hand, Armageddon hath arrived" category.
>
> I think this is the wrong approach for responsible ecologists. It
> resorts to using the same tactics the truly offensive
> anti-environmental preachers use (none of whom post to this list), by
> placing scientific credibility into question. In doing that, we are
> completely disarmed. Once credibility is questioned it is very
> difficult and frequently impossible to recover it. Lepidopterists
> might be better served in general by sticking to the science and not
> inventing environmental indicators of questionable general utility
> which only serves to perpetuate the standoff while real specific issues
> are faced daily in terms of habitat encroachment for thousands of
> species in a world that will have 8 billion humans competing for
> resources in another blink of the eye.
>
> Unfortunately, even statements like mine above can be twisted and
> selectively quoted out of context when someone who cares less about
> truth and only about giving winning rhetoric gets involved. To that,
> we are at a disadvantage, but it isn't as bleak in many areas as more
> of a mentality of natural conservation is evident every day. Not
> talking about regulations and government ... I'm referring to the
> general level of appreciation of having nature to retreat into from our
> urban sprawl that produces mountains of garbage ;-)
>
> One very positive effect of the Monarch conservation community has been
> a general increased awareness of many people who otherwise would never
> had known about it. It, and exquisite butterflies in general, do
> provide a very visible reminder of the fragility of the world when we
> can touch, tag, watch videos and increase habitat, etc. I think with
> the passage of time this will prove to be the legacy of the use of
> Monarchs as poster children for ecological inclined people. If we
> handle it this way, in my opinion, the potential for building consensus
> is much greater, as is the ability to use it as a true teaching
> laboratory for training future generations of scientists in scientific
> methodology. I have a higher tolerance for scientifically minded
> skeptics than most because I don't see anything wrong with questioning
> hypotheses. As a matter of fact, I see everything wrong with
> suppressing the scientifically minded opposition's ideas since the
> uninformed usually picks up on this before understanding what everyone
> is arguing about and tend to develop a soft spot for the suppressed...
>
> Kindest wishes
> Doug
> -----Original Message-----
> From: BPatter789 <BPatter789 at aol.com>
> To: mexicodoug <mexicodoug at aol.com>; rkuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>;
> leps-l <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; leps-l <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
> Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 12:08 pm
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> Dear Doug,
>
> Thank you for presenting a reasoning voice.
>
> It is reasonable to think that it is "possible" for anything to go
> extinct. Is it thus reasonable that we should monitor "everything?"
> Or maybe just keystone species and habitats (since "everything" might
> be a tad too much).
>
> Bob Patterson
> 12601 Buckingham Drive
> Bowie, Maryland 20715
> (301) - 262-2459 pm. hours
> Moth Photographers Group Website
> My Personal Moths Website
>
>
> In a message dated 2/13/2013 2:46:21 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
> mexicodoug at aol.com writes:
> "Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch
> migrations are possible"
>
> I don't mean to step on anyone's toes here because I LOVE the monarch
> migration and consider it one of the ancient and modern wonders of
> the
> natural world.
>
> But is this intended to be a scientific statement? If so, let's
> review
> a page from Carl Sagan's playbook on scientific thinking:
>
> "Don't assume the answer, but rather ask whether there is any
> independent evidence for the causality assumed in an argument."
> "Don't listen to arguments based on ignorance - the claim that
> whatever
> has not been proven false must be true (and vice versa)."
>
> Paul's comments even make me uncomfortable at times, but then (Sagan,
> on traps from confusing science with rhetoric)
>
> "Don't give credence to an argument from adverse consequences."
>
> And speaking for myself to myself, out loud (Sagan, again):
> Don't get too attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
> Don't let an argument go down the slippery slope of jumping to the
> extreme (this is also a subset of the excluded middle)."
> Don't listen to special pleads to rescue an argument in rhetorical
> trouble: "You don't understand the big picture."
>
> I do respect all the different points of view on the monarch
> migration
> miracle; and am thankful the issue still enjoys such spirited
> discussion. We should encourage all efforts at quantification on all
> sides IMO, and it is important not to get those of us who support the
> fun and satisfaction of further research not to be caricatured as
> alarmists, since the net effect is a loss of credibility to
> Lepidopterists in general. (This also applies,. Sagan again):
>
> "Don't be selective in making observations (enumerating favorable
> circumstances): count the misses as well as the hits."
>
> Best wishes
> Doug
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Roger Kuhlman <rkuhlman at hotmail.com>
> To: Leps List <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>; Leps List
> <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
> Sent: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 2:17 am
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> Clearly the extinction of both the eastern and western Monarch
> migrations are possible, so concern about migrating Monarch
> populations
> is reasonable and something that needs to be tracked closely.
>
> Roger Kuhlman
> Ann Arbor, Michigan
>
>
> Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:17:28 -0800
> From: agrkovich2003 at yahoo.com
> To: monarch at saber.net; TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com
> CC: leps-l at mailman.yale.edu
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> "Send money"...
>
> Alex
>
>
>
> From: Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net>
> To: TILS <TILS-leps-talk at yahoogroups.com>
> Cc: Leps-L <leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
> Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 10:31 PM
> Subject: [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> Here's a 26 second excerpt of Dr. Chip
> Taylor's fairly recent
> (Nov. 17, 2012) one hour speech at the 2nd Annual Quimby
> F. Hess Lecture at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM) in
> Toronto, Canada:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU
>
> If you want to view the whole 57 minute presentation
> you can see it here:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNTsL4rnUj0
>
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
>
>
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