[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[Paul Cherubini]

On Feb 16, 2013, at 11:11 AM, Chip Taylor wrote:

> Estimated reduction of climate habitat for Abies 
> religiosa (oyamel fir). Implications for monarch 
> butterfly conservation 
> http://www.monarchlab.org/mn2012/Admin/upload/158.pdf
> 
> Note that a significant loss of overwintering 
> habitat is predicted for as early as 2030.

Chip is that climate modeling study credible scientific 
evidence that thousands of acres of forest trees in 
Mexico will NOT still be available 50-100 years from 
now to support a migratory population of millions of eastern 
monarchs?

Here is a 50 second clip of your November lecture
where you discuss this study:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEZ4UvqOXJ8

In the clip you told the audience:

"He's projecting almost a 2 degree centigrade
increase in 2030, that's only 18 years from now.  
He's expecting temperatures down there to increase 
by 2 degrees centigrade (3-4 degrees fahrenheit). Well if
that happens that would have a tremendous impact
on the altitudes at which monarch butterflies occur
and that increase would in effect eliminate most of
those suitable areas for monarch overwintering
because it would eliminate the oyamel fir trees.
So on the basis of this model he's predicting the
oyamels are going to begin to die very fast."

Then in the same lecture you told the audience:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBSA81-0Sho

"this [graph] shows the world temperatures and you
can see that what has gone on from 1980, approximately, 
is a progressive increase in temperatures. So temperatures
are going up on a worldwide basis..."

But notice you didn't tell the audience that during that
long 32 year period (1980-2012) of "progressive warming" 
http://tinyurl.com/czoq2bu
the altitudes at which monarchs overwinter in Mexico
did not change nor did the warming cause any die off
of the oyamel fir trees.

So this begs the question: Is it reasonable and responsible
for you to be lecturing the public that during the next 18 
years it is realistically conceivable that temperatures in
the overwintering area of Mexico could increase by
a staggering and unprecedented 3-4 degrees and
"eliminate most of the suitable areas for overwintering
because it would eliminate the oyamel fir trees."?

Especially in light of the fact that world temperatures
have been relatively stable since 1999? 
http://tinyurl.com/czoq2bu

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.