[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[Chip Taylor]

My understanding is that a manuscript based on 
this presentation will be published in an 
upcoming book on monarch conservation. I heard 
the original talk and was shocked - as were many 
- at the prediction that it would be about 2C 
warmer at the elevation of the oyamel forests by 
2030. This represents and extraordinary rate of 
increase for such a short interval. If true, and 
if such a rate change is widespread and not just 
applicable to higher elevations, the world will 
be scrambling to adapt rather than worrying about 
monarchs. I'm hoping these guys are wrong but I 
wouldn't bet on it since most of the recent 
climate models have tended to underestimate 
rather than overestimate the rate of change. And, 
it's a fact that temperatures are increasing at 
mid and high elevations all over the tropics and 
subtropics, indeed over the planet.


>Lots of pretty pictures but no text to explain the presentation.
>
>I assume the slides showing predicted 
>temperature increase and rainfall decrease out 
>to 2090 are based on various climate models that 
>appear on a graph later in the presentation. 
>Since no climate model has been able to predict 
>the present from the past I see no reason to 
>believe any prediction made about 2090 using 
>them.
>
>Chuck
>
>
>
>>  Estimated reduction of climate habitat for Abies
>>  religiosa (oyamel fir). Implications for monarch
>>  butterfly conservation (Talk by Cuauhtémoc
>>  Sáenz-Romero, Gerald E. Rehfeldt, Pierre Duval,
>>  Roberto A. Lindig- Cisneros)
>>
>>  http://www.monarchlab.org/mn2012/Admin/upload/158.pdf
>>
>>  Note that a significant loss of overwintering
>>  habitat is predicted for as early as 2030.
>>
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