[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[Paul Cherubini]

On Feb 17, 2013, at 1:13 AM, Foley, Patrick wrote:

> Paul, The relevance of climate change, to the future
> of Monarch wintering habitat is discussed  in this paper
> from the Oberhauser lab: http://www.pnas.org/content/100/24/14063.full.pdf

Partick, that's another climate modeling study.  As 
Chuck Vaughn pointed out "no climate model has been able 
to predict the present from the past I see no reason to believe 
any prediction made about 2090 using them."

That climate modeling study also fails to acknowledge that 
that during the past 35 years of global warming the altitudes 
that monarchs overwinter at in Mexico did not change and 
no deaths of oyamel fir trees were observed.

> your claims that scientists are largely motivated by greed
> strike many as paranoid, rude or both.

I made no such comments. Again the topic at hand is whether 
or not any credible science exists to support the contention 
that temperatures in the overwintering region of Mexico could 
conceivably increase by a staggering and unprecedented 3-4 
degrees during the next 18 years and (Chip Taylor's words} 
"eliminate most of the suitable areas for overwintering because 
it would eliminate the oyamel fir trees."?

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.