[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[Foley, Patrick]

Paul,

The relevance of climate change, to the future of Monarch wintering habitat is discussed  in this paper from the Oberhauser lab: http://www.pnas.org/content/100/24/14063.full.pdf

The relevance of discussing "climate change denial" should be obvious from an examination of the comments you make in your posts, such as "climate change alarmists".

You make many good points in your posts, but comments such as these and your claims that scientists are largely motivated by greed strike many as paranoid, rude or both. Everybody is motivated to some extent by greed, but it sure seems a stupid path for the greedy to spend 10 years on PhD and postdocs and 6 years working for tenure before you can count on having a job. There are many uncertainties concerning the exact geographic consequences of global warming, but the research to figure this out is motivated by the real world and by the obvious physical consequences of human activities.

I am not a climate scientist and am making no specific predictions about Mexican highland climate or the Monarchs. I am sure there are details that Karen Oberhauser has got wrong, because all science is wrong. However the people who try to correct their own mistakes get it closer to right in the long run. Perhaps some day you'll join us, and the world will live as one.

yours in struggle,
Patrick

Patrick Foley
bees, fleas, flowers, disease
patfoley at csus.edu
________________________________________
From: leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu [leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu] on behalf of Paul Cherubini [monarch at saber.net]
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2013 12:06 AM
To: Leps List
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering   habitat in      Mexico

> On 2/16/2013 8:16 PM, Foley, Patrick wrote:

>> Count me (and the great majority of atmospheric scientists)
>> among the climate change alarmists.
>>
>> Skepticism in science is a very useful tool. But one should
>> be skeptical of ones own views also.  As far as I can see,
>> most climate change deniers do not question their own
>> belief systems or what motivates them.

Stan Gorodenski wrote:

> Good point. This never occurred to me. I wonder if climate
> change deniers even know themselves what motivates them.

How is any of the above "denier" and "motivation" discussion
relevant to the subject of this thread; i.e. relevant to the
question of whether or not any credible science exists
to support the contention that temperatures in the overwintering
region of Mexico could conceivably increase by a staggering
and unprecedented 3-4 degrees during the next 18 years
and (Chip Taylor's words} "eliminate most of the suitable
areas for overwintering because it would eliminate the
oyamel fir trees."?

Especially given the fact that we know that during the
past 35 years of global warming the altitudes that
monarchs overwinter at in Mexico did not change
and no deaths of oyamel fir trees were observed?

And the fact that we also know that the latitudes
at which monarchs overwintering along the California
coast did not shift northward during the past
75 years of warming?

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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