[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[MexicoDoug]

Paul:

>has [not] provided credible evidence supporting the climate modelers
>assumption of a 3-4 degree temperature increase in 18 years.

>Therefore at this point we are left to conclude is no such
>evidence exists."

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence!

is used to counter:

Pat:

>And if they realize they left something out or got something wrong,
>they will change their minds. Science is not about proving you are 
right; it
>is about changing minds to fit reality."

Moving the goalposts!

Best
Doug



Hi Paul and Pat

So, as an innocent bystander, I see an argument

-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net>
To: Leps List <Leps-l at mailman.yale.edu>
Sent: Mon, Feb 18, 2013 1:31 pm
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat 
in Mexico

On Feb 18, 2013, at 9:29 AM, Foley, Patrick wrote:

> Paul, We have reached the point in this discussion where
> there is little left to say.

Again, Pat, the topic at hand is the potential imminent
extinction of the monarch migration due to the potential
imminent elimination of the monarch overwintering trees
in Mexico during the next 18 years due to global warming.

The specific issue at hand is whether or not any credible
scientific evidence exists to support the climate modelers
assumption that temperatures in the monarch overwintering
region in central Mexico could conceivably increase by a
staggering and unprecedented 3-4 degrees during the
next 18 years and "eliminate most of the suitable areas for
overwintering because it would eliminate the oyamel fir
trees" (Chip Taylor's words:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEZ4UvqOXJ8 )

Pat, so far neither you nor anyone else has provided
credible evidence supporting the climate modelers
assumption of a 3-4 degree temperature increase in
18 years.

Therefore at this point we are left to conclude is no such
evidence exists.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif,
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