[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[Chuck Vaughn]

I have not seen any models that have under predicted warming but I guess they could be out there. I'd need to do some research to find them.

I've also heard this forecast of a 2C rise by 2030 but that seems very unlikely. We're almost halfway there and nothing is happening. What's more likely is that the negative phase of the PDO will finish around 2030 with some overall cooling before the warming resumes. 

The graph Paul linked to is the same one I've seen in various places. There's no catastrophic warming and no obvious link to CO2 emissions. For this and other reasons it is unlikely that CO2 drives climate. At best such a link is unproven.

There's also a disconnect between satellite temperatures of the lower troposphere and the surface temperatures, with the satellite data record (and also balloons) showing little warming. That's examined here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/10/on-the-differences-between-surface-and-tlt-datasets/

Chuck



> My understanding is that a manuscript based on this presentation will be published in an upcoming book on monarch conservation. I heard the original talk and was shocked - as were many - at the prediction that it would be about 2C warmer at the elevation of the oyamel forests by 2030. This represents and extraordinary rate of increase for such a short interval. If true, and if such a rate change is widespread and not just applicable to higher elevations, the world will be scrambling to adapt rather than worrying about monarchs. I'm hoping these guys are wrong but I wouldn't bet on it since most of the recent climate models have tended to underestimate rather than overestimate the rate of change. And, it's a fact that temperatures are increasing at mid and high elevations all over the tropics and subtropics, indeed over the planet.
> 
> 
>> Lots of pretty pictures but no text to explain the presentation.
>> 
>> I assume the slides showing predicted temperature increase and rainfall decrease out to 2090 are based on various climate models that appear on a graph later in the presentation. Since no climate model has been able to predict the present from the past I see no reason to believe any prediction made about 2090 using them.
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>> Chuck
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