[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

[BPatter789 at aol.com]

Dear Chuck,
 
Are my friends at NASA pulling the wool over my eyes?
 
_http://climate.nasa.gov/_ (http://climate.nasa.gov/) 
 
I have to ask: are you observant of the changes taking place around  you?
 
Bob  Patterson
12601 Buckingham Drive
Bowie, Maryland 20715
(301) - 262-2459  pm. hours
_Moth Photographers  Group Website_ 
(http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Plates.shtml) 
_My  Personal Moths Website_ 
(http://mothphotographersgroup.msstate.edu/Files1/Live/BP/BPsite/identified.shtml) 


In a message dated 2/16/2013 7:56:23 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
aa6g at aa6g.org writes:

I have  not seen any models that have under predicted warming but I guess 
they could  be out there. I'd need to do some research to find them.

I've also  heard this forecast of a 2C rise by 2030 but that seems very 
unlikely. We're  almost halfway there and nothing is happening. What's more 
likely is that the  negative phase of the PDO will finish around 2030 with some 
overall cooling  before the warming resumes. 

The graph Paul linked to is the same one  I've seen in various places. 
There's no catastrophic warming and no obvious  link to CO2 emissions. For this 
and other reasons it is unlikely that CO2  drives climate. At best such a 
link is unproven.

There's also a  disconnect between satellite temperatures of the lower 
troposphere and the  surface temperatures, with the satellite data record (and 
also balloons)  showing little warming. That's examined  here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/10/on-the-differences-between-surface-and
-tlt-datasets/

Chuck



>  My understanding is that a manuscript based on this presentation will be 
 published in an upcoming book on monarch conservation. I heard the 
original  talk and was shocked - as were many - at the prediction that it would be 
about  2C warmer at the elevation of the oyamel forests by 2030. This 
represents and  extraordinary rate of increase for such a short interval. If true, 
and if such  a rate change is widespread and not just applicable to higher 
elevations, the  world will be scrambling to adapt rather than worrying 
about monarchs. I'm  hoping these guys are wrong but I wouldn't bet on it since 
most of the recent  climate models have tended to underestimate rather than 
overestimate the rate  of change. And, it's a fact that temperatures are 
increasing at mid and high  elevations all over the tropics and subtropics, 
indeed over the  planet.
> 
> 
>> Lots of pretty pictures but no text to  explain the presentation.
>> 
>> I assume the slides showing  predicted temperature increase and rainfall 
decrease out to 2090 are based on  various climate models that appear on a 
graph later in the presentation. Since  no climate model has been able to 
predict the present from the past I see no  reason to believe any prediction 
made about 2090 using them.
>>  
>> Chuck
>>  

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